Upcoming Crypto Radar — Morning Pack

As-of: Mon Oct 5, 2026 ~09:10–09:30 ET (America/New_York)

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CLIFF CLOCK — DAY 6 POST-CLIFF (+ Summit overhang, Sunday tape)

Robinhood Chain gas subsidy scheduled end was Sep 29, 2026 @ 11:59 p.m. EST → this brief is DAY 6 POST-CLIFF (Fact, prior Motley Fool / The Defiant / KuCoin / Gate / BigNewsNetwork / 8bitcrypto on the offer window; ETHNews still frames the Sep 29 end). The completed Llama day in this pull is Oct 4 UTC = Sunday.

Soft cliff for Wallet path (unchanged, still cited): Robinhood Crypto X (nitter mirror, Sep 29) + secondary outlets (Bloomingbit / Phemex / PANews / Lookonchain) still report Robinhood Wallet swaps >$0.50 on Robinhood Chain remain gas-waived through Dec 31, 2026. Treat as Fact that RH Crypto X + secondary press reported the announcement; primary Help Center restatement still thin. Docs (docs.robinhood.com/chain/gas-and-fees) still describe normal ETH gas (L2 execution + L1 data) with no waiver page. Prior eligibility carve-outs (bridges, transfers, third-party wallets, in-app browser) still the working assumption (Estimate). → Soft cliff for Wallet in-app swaps; hard gas for non-Wallet paths.

HOOD Summit ’26 aftermath (Fact, CoinDesk / Decrypt / Bankless / The Defiant / Cryptonomist / KuCoin Sep 29–30; no new bombshell this morning):

• U.S. crypto perpetual futures for eligible customers via Robinhood Derivatives + Bitstamp — not Lighter — BTC/ETH up to 10×, others up to 3×; fees cited 1 bp through year-end; rollout “coming months,” not a live on-chain fee print
• LIT repriced earlier on Bitstamp routing; Wallet/Lighter integration in eligible non-U.S. jurisdictions not reported terminated
• Agents, weekend equities, Social, earnings contracts = TradFi/active-trader stack (context)

Day-6 RH metrics vs Sun Day-5 (Fact, Llama ~09:07–09:08 ET; total24h / completed bars = Oct 4 UTC day, not the partial Oct 5 bar):

Cumulative vs Wed Day-1: RH fees $166k → $49.9k (−70%). Path on this pull’s bars: $166.1k → $97.1k → $82.7k → $100.9k → $59.4k → $49.9k. Sunday did not reclaim Saturday’s $59.4k low — it printed a new post-cliff low ~$50k.

Read: Not a verified fee-path collapse, and not URGENT. Sunday RH chain fees made another low, but (1) the bar is still a weekend day, (2) Lighter-RH and Arcus both reclaimed from Saturday’s air-pocket (+21% / +45%), (3) Pons still cleared $877k gross fees (down, not dead), (4) mature Hyperliquid fees also soft-to-mid on the weekend window (this pull’s Oct 3 $1.40M → Oct 4 $1.76M; see note on Llama revision vs Sun pack’s $866k print). Soft Wallet extension still the UX buffer. Summit Bitstamp U.S. perps remain a structural overhang for Lighter — unchanged, not a new on-chain bombshell. A ~$50k Sunday strengthens the structural-floor watch vs the prior “Saturday air-pocket” read — but weekday confirmation is still required before URGENT.

Calendar — Hyperliquid AQAv2 (was Oct 3; still unresolved Oct 5): Best-sourced writeups (TokenPress; CoinGabbar Oct 3; Newisty; CryptoBriefing) still describe ~14,580,777 USDC (~$14.58M) at the system interest / collection address, with only an earlier ~2 USDC in the Assistance Fund when independently checked. Protocol docs: revenue accrues in 30-day intervals and is scheduled to move to the Assistance Fund ~eight days after an interval closes — so a lag is expected, not proof of failure. Buyback execution / Assistance Fund transfer is not confirmed. telem.news (Oct 4) still asserts the interest-address balance was transferred to the Assistance Fund; that conflicts with explorer-based reporting. Digest’s ~$14.6M “earmarked for buybacks” framing is secondary press, not a primary tx. This pack does not upgrade the Assistance Fund transfer to Fact. Digest also cites Bloomberg Terminal perps listing and a secondary “~$193M annualized” claim — context only. Mature large-cap — watch/context, not an early Radar hit.

Note on HL Saturday print: Sun pack printed Oct 3 HL fees $866k. This morning’s Llama bar for Oct 3 is $1.40M (and Oct 2 $4.06M). Treat as a Llama series revision — do not chain Sun’s $866k into today’s Δ table. Use this pull’s Oct 3→Oct 4: $1.40M → $1.76M (+26%).

Fables (Airdrops, not Radar): LP points still run to 19 Oct; liquid-vs-veFABLES choice 12–19 Oct (opens in 7 days); PROLOGUE snapshot 17–18 Oct; TGE 20 Oct (fables.fi / Lookonchain / PANews / Phemex). Llama ProtocolRevenue $0. Completed Oct 4 fees $131k (Oct 5 total24h $149k is the partial bar — not used). TVL ~$42.5M (↓ vs Sun ~$43.8M). No fee thesis → stay Airdrops.

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1) RANKED HITS (8)

#1 Pump.fun (Solana launchpad) — Radar 91 (Δ 0 vs Sun 91)

Fact metrics (Llama pump.fun, ~09:07–09:08 ET; total24h = completed Oct 4 UTC):

• Fees 24h $2.40M · 7d $15.87M · 30d $50.4M
• Revenue 24h $1.78M · 7d $11.60M · 30d $35.87M
• Holders rev 24h $1.24M · 7d $8.15M · 30d $25.61M
• Protocol rev 24h $893k
  vs Sun pack: fees 24h $2.31M → $2.40M (↑); rev 24h $1.71M → $1.78M (↑); holders 24h $1.24M → $1.24M (≈); 7d rev $11.37M → $11.60M (↑, window).
  30d vs Hyperliquid (Fact): pump.fun rev $35.87M < HL rev $71.31M. Parent pump rev $57.11M < HL $71.31M. Neither slug flips HL on this pull (Sun’s parent-edge vs HL $54.34M is gone after Llama’s HL 30d revision).
  Parent slug pump (combined): fees 24h $8.24M / rev $2.79M (Fact) — do not confuse with launchpad-only.
  Mobile app child (pump.fun-mobile-app): fees 24h $492k / rev $198k.
  Sources: https://defillama.com/protocol/pump.fun · Llama API summary/fees/pump.fun

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#2 Meteora / DBC / StockLaunch (Solana) — Radar 70 (Δ 0 vs Sun 70)

Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:07–09:08 ET):

• Meteora (parent) fees 24h $1.02M / rev $129k · 7d fees $7.44M / rev $929k · 30d fees $33.71M / rev $4.01M · TVL ~$326M · mcap ~$165M
• Meteora Dynamic Bonding Curve fees 24h $182k / rev $31.4k · 7d fees $940k / rev $167k · 30d fees $2.09M / rev $378k
  vs Sun: parent fees 24h $1.10M → $1.02M (↓); DBC fees 24h $112k → $182k (↑); parent TVL ~$326M → ~$326M (≈); mcap ~$168M → ~$165M (↓).
  LaunchLab context (don’t double-count with StonkFun): fees 24h $249k (+28% vs Oct 3 $195k) / rev $47k (Fact, Llama launchlab).
  Sources: Llama meteora, meteora-dynamic-bonding-curve

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#3 Arc (Circle L1) — Radar 70 (Δ 0 vs Sun 70)

Fact metrics (~09:07–09:08 ET):

• Llama chain TVL ~$543.6M (Oct 5 hist; ↓ vs Sun ~$562M)
• Week-1 official/secondary (Sep 24, still latest official print cited): USDC circ ~$624–628M, USDC transferred $6.8B (Fact as reported)
• Llama overview/fees/Arc total24h ~$240k (overview mix; +79% 1d — driven by Uniswap V3/V4 lines; not a native Arc L1 fee adapter). Largest lines: Uniswap V3 ~$120k, Uniswap V4 ~$92k, Argus World completed Oct 4 fees ~$29.2k (overview total24h $25.0k matches partial Oct 5 — don’t use it as the completed day) / 7d ~$464k. Argus stays watch
  Sources: https://defillama.com/chain/Arc · Circle / TokenPost / Lookonchain week-one context

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#4 Lighter (zkLighter / ETH + Robinhood Chain) — Radar 65 (Δ +1 vs Sun 64)

Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:07–09:08 ET):

• Lighter fees 24h $84.6k / rev $80.6k · holders rev $23.7k · protocol rev $56.9k · 7d fees $1.22M / rev $1.04M · 30d fees $5.13M / rev $4.32M
• TVL ~$766–768M (ETH ~$654M + RH Chain ~$112M; ≈ vs Sun ~$768M) · mcap ~$978M (↑ vs Sun ~$908M) · RH Chain TVL slice ~$112M (≈)
• Lighter Robinhood Perps fees 24h $43.4k / rev $41.7k · 7d fees $501k / rev $465k · 30d fees $1.90M / rev $1.75M
  vs Sun: fees 24h $68.3k → $84.6k (↑); rev 24h $66.6k → $80.6k (↑); RH Perps fees/rev $36.0k / $35.7k → $43.4k / $41.7k (↑).
  Sources: Llama API lighter, lighter-robinhood-perps · Bankless / Decrypt / The Defiant / KuCoin (Bitstamp U.S. perps)

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#5 StonkFun (Solana) — Radar 54 (Δ +3 vs Sun 51; slot ↑ #6→#5)

Fact metrics (Llama stonkfun, fees≈revenue per methodology):

• Rev/Fees 24h $577k (+94% vs Oct 3) · 7d $5.04M · 30d $29.52M
• Protocol rev 24h $259k (+119%) · Holders rev 24h $318k (+78%) · 7d holders $2.65M · 30d holders $14.89M
• mcap ~$168M (↑ vs Sun ~$163M)
  vs Sun: 24h $298k → $577k; 7d $4.99M → $5.04M (≈↑); holders 24h $179k → $318k (↑).
  Beat check (Fact, ~09:08 ET):
• StonkFun 7d $5.04M vs pump.fun 7d rev $11.60M → does not beat Pump launchpad alone.
• vs Pons 7d rev $1.50M → beats Pons alone.
• vs Pump+Pons combined 7d rev $13.10M → does not beat.
• 24h: Pump.fun rev $1.78M > StonkFun $577k > Pons rev $127k. Pons gross fees $877k still exceed StonkFun.
  Sources: Llama API stonkfun

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#6 Pons (Robinhood Chain launchpad) — Radar 53 (Day-6 soft override; Δ −2 vs Sun 55; slot ↓ #5→#6)

Fact metrics (Llama pons, ~09:07–09:08 ET):

• Fees 24h $877k · 7d $9.49M · 30d $115.8M (Oct 5 partial bar $765k is incomplete — not used as 24h)
• Revenue 24h $127k · 7d $1.50M · 30d $18.98M
• Holders rev 24h $163k · 7d $1.34M · 30d $15.94M
• ProtocolRevenue $0 (adapter books the take in holders / revenue, not protocol)
• mcap ~$271M (↓ vs Sun ~$281M)
• Pons V2 completed Oct 4 fees $852k (this pull’s Oct 3 bar $1.04M). V2 total24h $765k is the partial Oct 5 bar.
  vs Sun pack: fees 24h $1.07M → $877k (↓); rev 24h $163k → $127k (↓); 7d rev $1.57M → $1.50M (↓); holders 24h $402k → $163k (↓, mean-reverts the lumpy Sat spike).
  Sources: Llama API pons · nitter RH Crypto / Bloomingbit / Phemex on Wallet waiver thru Dec 31 · Summit press (Bitstamp)

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#7 Arcus Perps (Robinhood Chain) — Radar 52 (Δ +2 vs Sun 50)

Fact metrics (Llama arcus-perps, ~09:07–09:08 ET):

• Fees 24h $50.6k (+45%) · 7d $478k · 30d $834k
• Revenue 24h $44.8k · 7d $433k · 30d $765k
• TVL ~$39.3M (RH Chain; ↑ vs Sun ~$37.7M)
• arcus-spot / arcus-aggregator: no fee adapter this pull (Spot marketed 0% on Stock Tokens)
  Sources: Llama arcus-perps · https://arcus.xyz · arcus Points blog (Season 1 / Annex C)

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#8 TxFlow Perps (TxFlow L1) — Radar 50 (Δ +1 vs Sun 49)

Fact metrics (Llama txflow / txflow-perps, ~09:07–09:08 ET):

• Fees 24h $33.3k (= rev = protocol rev) · 7d $292k · 30d $916k · change_1d +18.2%
• Open interest ~$25.4M (Llama open-interest; +3.1% 1d vs Oct 3 $24.6M) · 7d OI-sum ~$177M (snapshot sum, not volume)
• Bridge TVL ~$25.4M (Arbitrum) · mcap: none
• Perp volume not in this pull. Do not carry any older volume print as today’s Fact.
  vs Sun: fees $28.2k → $33.3k (↑); OI ~$24.6M → ~$25.4M (↑); bridge TVL ~$24.6M → ~$25.4M (↑).
  Sources: Llama txflow-perps · https://defillama.com/protocol/txflow

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URGENT

None. Day-6 RH chain fees made another post-cliff low ($59.4k → $49.9k, −70% vs Wed $166k), and Pons faded a second day, but (1) the bar is Sunday, (2) Lighter-RH / Arcus reclaimed, (3) Pons still $877k gross fees, (4) Soft Wallet waiver thru Dec 31 still cited. Summit Bitstamp routing is unchanged structure, not a new on-chain fee bombshell. HL AQAv2 Assistance Fund transfer is still not confirmed. A ~$50k Sunday strengthens the structural-floor watch — weekday confirmation still required before URGENT.

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CROSS-TEAM

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2) SUMMARY TABLE

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3) WATCHLIST CHANGES vs Sun Oct 4 ~09:15 ET

NEW

RISING

FADING

REMOVED / NOT PROMOTED

• Slot change: StonkFun #6→#5 (Radar 51→54); Pons #5→#6 (Radar 55→53). Lighter 64→65. Arcus 50→52. TxFlow 49→50. Pump / Meteora / Arc unchanged at 91 / 70 / 70.
• StonkFun — not removed; reclaim day + slot promote. Beat claim still failed.
• Pons — soft override deepened (−2); demoted one slot, not off the board.
• Derive — still not ranked (fees ~$9.7k).
• Variational — zero-fee perps + points → Airdrops. Fees adapter still absent (HTTP 400).
• Scrooge — Llama slug still HTTP 400 / unlisted. Docs-only fee schedule is not a rank.
• Robinlaunch / RobinLaunchpad — Llama fees/rev $0 / $0, including Oct 4 and partial Oct 5. Watch only.
• Neutral Trade — completed Oct 4 fees ~$429. Watch.
• Folio / Robinfolio / HoodFunds / FidesFi — no Llama fee slug → watch.
• MetaDAO — fees ~$3.7k/d — watch (Oct 6 ICO window).
• NOXA Fun — fees ~$11.7k / ProtocolRevenue $0 → watch.
• Fables — RH LP fee farm ($131k fees / $0 protocol rev) → Airdrops.
• Hyperliquid — mature; AQAv2 interest-address print still the corroborated state; AF transfer unconfirmed. Not ranked.
• Argus World — real Llama fees, unverified thesis, still cooling → watch.
• Exponent — Oct 4 ~$1.3k after spike death; not promoted.
• Backpack / Sunrise / $BLK / $PUSA — no equity-rail fee slug. Tickers are Misses.
• fomo — large fee app ($801k rev), no token. Not an early rank.
• UsePaid / $PAID — no Llama fee slug → watch.
• Peach Launchpad (Arc) — overview fees ~$5.3k 24h. Too small.
• Flop Labs — event tomorrow; no fees → Watch.
• HOOKR / RCPTS / SPX6900 / Agency meta / $SI and the rest of the meme list — Misses.
• Uniswap / Raydium — mature DEX context only (LaunchLab child reclaimed).

UNCHANGED / MONITOR

• UsePaid / XMoney — fee bridge docs; $PAID Llama fee slug still absent.
• RH stock tokens / Folio indexes — Summit aftermath + soft Wallet gas path still the real test; Llama adapter absent.
• Lighter Robinhood Perps line — Day-6 partial reclaim; Bitstamp overhang unchanged; mcap rose.
• Arc week-3 / day-19 retention — TVL ~$544M; still need a newer official USDC print vs week-1 ~$624–628M.
• Fables RH LP points — ends 19 Oct; claim choice 12–19 Oct; PROLOGUE snapshot 17–18 Oct; TGE 20 Oct.
• Switchboard oracle EOL — support end was Fri Sep 25; Solana DeFi migration risk still open.
• MetaDAO Oct 6 permissionless ICO window — monitor; fees still small ($3.7k).
• Derive — $9.7k fees; still watch.
• Scrooge / RobinLaunchpad — wait for non-zero Llama fees before any rank discussion.
• HL AQAv2 — watch whether the ~$14.58M leaves the interest address. A digest/press headline is not a transfer. Not a rank trigger.
• RH structural-floor watch — two weekend lows ($59.4k → $49.9k). Need a weekday bar before URGENT.

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4) MISSES TO AVOID

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5) WHAT COULD I BE WRONG ABOUT?

1. Sunday’s $49.9k is still weekend noise — Or Mon–Tue confirm a structural ~$50k run-rate and the “no URGENT” call was early.
2. Wallet waiver thru Dec 31 is narrower than reported — If Help Center restricts further, non-Wallet Pons flow could cliff harder.
3. Pons $877k / $127k is the new sticky level — Or weekday reclaim restores $1M+. Override to 53 may be too harsh if it bounces.
4. Bitstamp U.S. perps starve Lighter over weeks — Day-6 parent fees $85k and mcap $978M look like a repair. A soft weekday would change that.
5. Arcus ~$51k is the real run-rate — Or the cohort pattern (Day-3 $87k) returns; or Sat $35k was the floor. TVL $39.3M didn’t leave.
6. StonkFun +94% is a dead-cat bounce — Radar 54 / slot #5 may be high if Oct 5 continues the slide. 30d $29.5M is why it stays ranked.
7. TxFlow +18% is only partial — Prior days were stable ~$45–51k. Full repair still missing; 50 could go to watch.
8. Meteora parent −7% with DBC +62% is a healthy mix — Or DBC’s bounce is integrator noise that doesn’t stick.
9. Arc TVL ~$544M giveback is noise — Or the next USDC print disappoints vs week-1 ~$624–628M and Trusted should have been cut harder.
10. RobinLaunchpad / Scrooge print non-zero Llama fees within days — Today both stay Watch ($0 / unlisted).
11. Fables TGE Oct 20 creates a protocol-fee path — Until ProtocolRevenue > $0, stays Airdrops.
12. Pons override to 53 is too harsh / too soft — Raw 56 with a Sunday excuse argues for easing; two fade days argue for the cut.
13. The ~$14.58M already moved, and telem.news / digest framing is right — This pack treats Assistance Fund transfer as unconfirmed because explorer-based reports disagree and no primary tx was pulled here. A later primary tx is a calendar update, still not an early-hit promotion.
14. Leaving fomo off the board is wrong — $801k rev with no token failed the early/token test. If a token path appears, it is a rank candidate immediately.
15. Promoting StonkFun over Pons is wrong — Pons still prints higher gross fees; the Radar pass is on trajectory + Solana weight, not gross-fee leadership.
16. HL 30d revision makes prior “parent pump edges HL” packs look wrong — Yes on this pull’s window; don’t retrofit. State the Fact as-of today.

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METRIC APPENDIX — Sun Day-5 → Mon Day-6 refresh (Fact, Llama unless noted)

Beat math (Mon): StonkFun 7d $5.04M vs Pump.fun rev $11.60M (loses alone) vs Pump+Pons rev $13.10M → combined claim FAILED. 24h Pump.fun rev $1.78M > StonkFun $577k.

RH path (this pull, UTC day fees): Sep 29 $166.1k → Sep 30 $97.1k → Oct 1 $82.7k → Oct 2 $100.9k → Oct 3 $59.4k → Oct 4 $49.9k.

Sources / technical notes

DIGEST STATUS — DIGEST_OK

Field	Value
Digest URL	https://makcapitaldaily.grok.me
DIGEST_ASOF	2026-10-05 08:10 ET (sibling computerUse real box-browser visit; matches CoS)
Age at brief (~09:10–09:30 ET)	~1.0–1.3 hours
Status	DIGEST_OK (LIVE morning issue; not Sep-22 / waiting banner)
Footer	DIGEST_OK | as_of=2026-10-05 08:10 ET | meme=2 | radar=3 | airdrop=2

Fetch note: Plain HTTP/WebFetch can still stick on Sep 22 SSR/cache (confirmed again this morning). This status is not from HTTP. Live browser-warm As-of 2026-10-05 08:10 ET is authoritative. Digest does not cover RH gas cliff / Wallet waiver, HOOD Summit / Bitstamp, Fables, Scrooge, Robinlaunch, TxFlow, Meteora, Arc alone, StonkFun/Stonk, Pons, Variational, Backpack/Sunrise, Callout Rewards, or fomo — those are covered from independent Llama/news research below. Digest leads used as leads only — do not rubber-stamp.

Browser-skim Early / narrative leads (verify, don’t rubber-stamp):

• Hyperliquid / AQAv2: Digest now frames ~$14.6M USDC first payment earmarked for HYPE buybacks/burns (CoinDesk / BSCNews cited; no official HL post found in skim). Also: perps on Bloomberg Terminal; annualized rev “approaching $193M” = secondary claim. Independent check this morning: best explorer-based writeups still place the ~14,580,777 USDC at the system interest / collection address, with Assistance Fund transfer still NOT confirmed as Fact (see cliff calendar). Mature large-cap → watch/context, not early Radar.
• Polymarket vs HYPE: Digest cites Polymarket CMO weekend rev $9.9M vs HL $2.64M; CEO teased Token 2049 news — reply accounts reading airdrop, but CEO post does not say airdrop/snapshot/date → Airdrops handoff for speculation; platform context only.
• RH Chain rails: Injective Stockdrop live; claimed >7.2M INJ burned (project posts); RH native INJ transfers. Farm accounts: Lighter points live on RH (claimed 100k/week), Arcus 250k pts/week + beta invite-only — Low–Med, not Fact until official. Digest: RH = products/points, not a clean meme leader.
• Flop Labs / Flop Network (@CryptoHayes): launch event Singapore Tue Oct 6 9am–noon SGT — no product metrics → Watch unless fees appear.
• Tokenized stocks: OKX + ICE SEC exemption path filing — TradFi context.
• Pump.fun: Decrypt named week onchain rev leader $17.9M — Llama pump.fun 7d fees $15.87M / 7d rev $11.60M does not match $17.9M exactly (different window or fees-as-rev mix). Context, not a new pick. Durable #1 still.
• Pure memes → Misses / Meme Trenches: Agency meta ($Agency / $baton / $swordcat / $HIGGS / $MEMEAGENCY), $SI shill/raid extreme.
• Digest mentions: Hyperliquid buybacks/AQAv2, Pump, Lighter, Arcus. Digest does not mention the cliff/waiver/Summit/Fables/Scrooge/Robinlaunch/TxFlow/Meteora/Arc/StonkFun/Pons/Variational/fomo set above.

Label key: Fact = on-chain / Llama / named primary · Estimate = derived / secondary · Speculative = narrative / unconfirmed path.

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• DefiLlama API pulls ~09:07–09:08 ET; pack compiled ~09:15 ET Mon Oct 5, 2026 · DAY 6 POST-CLIFF.
• Pack saved: /workspace/crypto-packs/2026-10-05/radar.md
• Continuity copy: /workspace/crypto-radar/2026-10-05/morning-pack.md
• Compiled ~09:15 ET Mon Oct 5, 2026 · Llama pulls ~09:07–09:08 ET · **DAY 6 POST-CLIFF