Archive/2026-09-28Radar

Upcoming Crypto Radar

Upcoming Crypto Radar — Morning Pack

As-of: Mon Sep 28, 2026 ~09:20 ET (America/New_York)

CLIFF CLOCK

Robinhood Chain gas subsidy ends Sep 29, 2026 @ 11:59 p.m. EST → ~1 calendar day from this brief (Fact; source details are in Sources / technical notes). Same-day narrative overlap: HOOD Summit ’26 “Engines of Creation” Sep 29–30 (keynote Sep 29 5:30 p.m. CT / 6:30 p.m. ET) — official Robinhood presents page (Fact event dates; Speculative which Chain / stock-token announcements land). RH Chain Llama (~09:19 ET): chain fees 24h $68k (−25% 1d) / rev $60k; chain TVL ~$1.02B (Fact, Llama). Pre-cliff fee cool continues into Monday (Sun was $91k).

1) RANKED HITS (8)

#1 Pump.fun (Solana launchpad) — Radar 91 (Δ −1 vs Sun 92)


Trusted	88
Revenue	93
Radar	91 = 0.5×(88+93) = 90.5 → 91
Stage	Mature launchpad + buybacks / holder rewards
Thesis	Durable Solana fee machine; still holds 7d rev lead vs StonkFun after weekend reclaim.
Why now	Mon cool confirms weekend spike mean-revert (−22% fees/rev 1d) but 7d rev still up vs Sun; digest ATH volume claim is volume, not fees.
Biggest risk	Further Mon–Tue cool after weekend; Custom Pairs contested by stock-pair rails; reg overhang.

Fact metrics (Llama pump.fun, ~09:18–09:19 ET):

Fees 24h $2.11M · 7d $13.25M · 30d $45.28M
Revenue 24h $1.56M · 7d $9.65M · 30d $32.43M
Holders rev 24h $1.24M · 7d $6.82M · 30d $23.41M vs Sun (~09:03–09:06 ET): fees 24h $2.70M → $2.11M (↓ −22%); rev 24h $2.00M → $1.56M (↓ −22%); holders 24h $1.41M → $1.24M (↓); 7d rev $9.14M → $9.65M (↑). Parent slug pump (combined): fees 24h $7.77M / rev $2.46M (Fact) — do not confuse with launchpad-only. Mobile app child (pump.fun-mobile-app): fees 24h $421k / rev $192k (Fact) — partial lens on “app near ATH” claim; still ≠ $62M volume. Sources: https://defillama.com/protocol/pump.fun · Llama API summary/fees/pump.fun?dataType=…

#2 Meteora / DBC / StockLaunch (Solana) — Radar 70 (Δ −4 vs Sun 74)


Trusted	75
Revenue	65
Radar	70
Stage	Infra + DBC integrator rails; StockLaunch product live
Thesis	Parent fee stack (DLMM etc.) + DBC as Solana stock-paired launch infra vs StonkFun.
Why now	Parent 24h fees −35% and DBC −40% — soft Mon after Sun uptick; TVL slips; infra still live.
Biggest risk	DBC is integrator infra (Believe/Bags overlap — don’t double-count); protocol take is minority of DBC fees.

Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:18–09:19 ET):

Meteora (parent) fees 24h $863k / rev $105k · 7d fees $8.42M / rev $1.01M · 30d fees $29.70M / rev $3.49M · TVL ~$323M · mcap ~$180M
Meteora Dynamic Bonding Curve fees 24h $39k / rev $7.4k · 7d fees $506k / rev $92k · 30d fees $1.29M / rev $238k vs Sun: parent fees 24h $1.32M → $863k (↓); DBC fees 24h $66k → $39k (↓ −40%); parent TVL ~$331M → ~$323M; parent 30d fees $29.6M → $29.7M (≈). LaunchLab context (don’t double-count with StonkFun): fees 24h $249k (+40% 1d) / rev $49k (Fact, Llama launchlab). Sources: Llama meteora, meteora-dynamic-bonding-curve

#3 Arc (Circle L1) — Radar 69 (Δ −1 vs Sun 70)


Trusted	82 (Circle launch + Llama chain TVL + Sep 24 week-1 print)
Revenue	55 (app fees exist; no Llama chain-fee adapter; ARC token not public float)
Radar	69 = 0.5×(82+55) = 68.5 → 69
Stage	Mainnet day 12 (launched Sep 16, 2026 per Circle / CoinGabbar)
Thesis	USDC-gas economic OS; institutional validators; Morpho/Aave/Uniswap early deposits.
Why now	Llama TVL first soft day vs Sun ($527M → $519M); week-2+ retention still elevated vs mid-week prints.
Biggest risk	Early numbers often incentivized; lending concentration; token accrual path unclear; soft TVL day may deepen.

Fact metrics (~09:19 ET):

Llama chain TVL ~$519M (vs Sun ~$527M → slight ↓; vs Sat ~$503M / Fri ~$484M still above)
Week-1 official/secondary (Sep 24, still latest official print cited): USDC circ ~$624–628M, USDC transferred $6.8B (Fact as reported)
Llama Arc chain fees adapter: none (empty/400 on summary) Sources: https://defillama.com/chain/Arc · Circle / TokenPost / Lookonchain week-one context

#4 Lighter (zkLighter / ETH + Robinhood Chain) — Radar 65 (Δ +3 vs Sun 62)


Trusted	72
Revenue	58
Radar	65 = 0.5×(72+58) = 65
Stage	Live perps DEX + bridge TVL; RH expansion
Thesis	Verifiable perps + fee→buyback path; RH Chain perps add distribution.
Why now	Weekend fee crush reverse: fees/rev +29% / +26% 1d; RH Perps rev also +20%; TVL holds ~$764M. Cliff still ~1d.
Biggest risk	Zero-fee retail model depends on premium/staking economics; volume share vs Hyperliquid; RH cliff (~1d) may cut RH-leg again tomorrow.

Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:18–09:19 ET):

Lighter fees 24h $108k / rev $103k · 7d fees $1.43M / rev $1.15M · 30d fees $5.08M / rev $4.35M
TVL ~$764M (Llama protocol; ETH+RH+Arb breakdown) · mcap ~$1.10B
Lighter Robinhood Perps fees 24h $47k / rev $47k · 7d fees $517k / rev $476k · 30d fees $1.66M / rev $1.52M vs Sun: fees 24h $84k → $108k (↑ +29%); rev 24h $82k → $103k (↑); TVL ~$762M → ~$764M (≈↑); RH Perps rev 24h $39k → $47k (↑ +20%). Sources: Llama API lighter, lighter-robinhood-perps, tvl/lighter

#5 StonkFun (Solana) — Radar 64 (Δ −4 vs Sun 68)


Trusted	58 (real fees; multi-day cool continues −38% Sun then −9% Mon; beat claim dead)
Revenue	70
Radar	64 = 0.5×(58+70) = 64
Stage	Early breakout launchpad (~Aug origin / LaunchLab rails)
Thesis	Stock-/RW-paired LaunchLab rails + locked LP fee harvest + STONK buybacks.
Why now	Still a large Solana fee printer on absolute 7d, but trail vs pump.fun widens on both 24h and 7d.
Biggest risk	Thesis check — digest “beat Pump+Pons” FAILED again vs Pump alone and combined. Competing stock-pair rails (Meteora StockLaunch, Long.xyz).

Fact metrics (Llama stonkfun, fees≈revenue per methodology):

Rev/Fees 24h $529k (−9% 1d) · 7d $8.01M · 30d $24.85M
Holders rev 24h $287k (−18% 1d) · 7d $3.99M · 30d $12.44M
mcap ~$199–205M (Llama protocol; Sun ~$232M — softer) vs Sun: 24h $583k → $529k; 7d $8.55M → $8.01M (↓); holders 24h $350k → $287k (↓). Beat check (Fact, ~09:19 ET):
StonkFun 7d $8.01M vs pump.fun 7d $9.65M → does not beat Pump launchpad alone (gap widened).
vs Pons 7d rev $2.21M → beats Pons alone.
vs Pump+Pons combined 7d $11.86M → does not beat.
24h: Pump.fun $1.56M >> StonkFun $529k.
30d Pump $32.43M >> StonkFun $24.85M. Sources: Llama API stonkfun

#6 Pons (Robinhood Chain launchpad) — Radar 55 (cliff override; Δ −5 vs Sun 60)


Trusted	48 (subsidy-distorted usage; RH chain fees −25% 1d to $68k; Summit+cliff tomorrow)
Revenue	74
Raw Radar	~61 → override 55 (Sep 29 cliff ~1 calendar day + Summit narrative overlap)
Stage	Dominant RH meme launchpad
Thesis	High gross fees; protocol retains minority of fees; buybacks.
Why now	24h fees/rev −22% / −23% vs Sun; RH chain cool continues; cliff now ~1 calendar day.
Biggest risk	Gas subsidy ends Sep 29 (~1d). Memecoin mix vs RH’s stock-token pitch; post-cliff volume path unknown.

Fact metrics (Llama pons, ~09:18–09:19 ET):

Fees 24h $1.31M · 7d $14.83M · 30d $146.35M
Revenue 24h $191k · 7d $2.21M · 30d $25.23M
Holders rev 24h $295k · 7d $1.68M · 30d $16.20M
mcap ~$368M
Pons V2 child fees 24h $1.24M / rev $180k (Fact, majority of parent) vs Sun: fees 24h $1.68M → $1.31M (↓ −22%); rev 24h $249k → $191k (↓ −23%); 7d rev $2.32M → $2.21M (↓). Sources: Llama API pons · Motley Fool / The Defiant / KuCoin / Gate on Sep 29 subsidy end · robinhood.com/presents (Summit)

#7 Arcus Perps (Robinhood Chain) — Radar 53 (NEW vs Sun)


Trusted	58 (official RH Chain DEX / dYdX-team next chapter; Llama fee adapter live; geo bans; beta; cliff)
Revenue	48 (real ProtocolRevenue; 24h spiky +278% 1d; Spot Stock Tokens are 0% fee)
Radar	53 = 0.5×(58+48) = 53
Stage	Early live beta (Spot open; Perps cohort/waitlist)
Thesis	Fee-bearing perps on RH stock-token / multi-asset rails; referral fee share documented; token path not official points→airdrop Fact.
Why now	Digest/Early lead verified on Llama this pull: fees 24h $50k / rev $46k; TVL ~$26M. Do not rubber-stamp digest “points” narrative (Airdrops notes: no official points page).
Biggest risk	RH cliff ~1d; Spot 0% fee means revenue depends on Perps adoption; geo-restricted (US/UK/CA etc.); +278% day may mean-revert; no token float.

Fact metrics (Llama arcus-perps, ~09:19 ET):

Fees 24h $50k (+278% 1d) · 7d $166k · 30d $437k
Revenue 24h $46k · 7d $154k · 30d $408k (fees≈protocol revenue)
TVL ~$26M (RH Chain) · arcus-ptokens TVL ~$0.7M
arcus-spot / arcus-aggregator: no fee adapter this pull (Spot marketed 0% on Stock Tokens) Sources: Llama arcus-perps · https://arcus.xyz · arcus docs/blog (referral fee tiers)

#8 Derive — Radar 50 (Δ −2 vs Sun 52)


Trusted	62
Revenue	38
Radar	50 = 0.5×(62+38) = 50
Stage	Live options/perps; V3 DIP proposed
Thesis	Onchain options fee path; V3 zkVM/Ethereum settlement proposal is catalyst if passed.
Why now	Soft again (−10% fees 1d); absolute scale remains tiny vs launchpads/perps leaders.
Biggest risk	Fee scale; V3 is proposal not ship (Speculative timeline).

Fact metrics (Llama derive, ~09:18–09:19 ET):

Fees 24h $14.9k / rev $11.5k · 7d fees $191k / rev $144k · 30d fees $615k / rev $487k
TVL ~$187M · mcap ~$383M vs Sun: fees 24h $16.5k → $14.9k (↓); rev 24h $12.7k → $11.5k (↓); TVL ~$190M → ~$187M (↓). Sources: Llama derive · forums.derive.xyz DIP V3

2) SUMMARY TABLE

Project	Chain	Stage	Trusted	Revenue	Radar	Thesis	Why now	Biggest risk	Sources
Pump.fun	Solana	Mature launchpad	88	93	91	Bonding-curve + buybacks	7d rev ↑; 24h −22% cool	Weekend mean-revert continues	Llama `pump.fun`
Meteora/DBC	Solana	DEX + DBC infra	75	65	70	Fees + StockLaunch rails	Parent/DBC soft Mon	Integrator overlap	Llama `meteora` / DBC
Arc	Arc (Circle)	Mainnet d12	82	55	69	USDC-gas L1 DeFi	TVL $519M slight ↓	Lending conc.; weak token path	Llama chain; Circle
Lighter	ETH / RH / Arb	Live perps	72	58	65	Perps + buybacks + RH leg	Fees rebound +29%	Zero-fee model; RH cliff 1d	Llama `lighter`
StonkFun	Solana	Early launchpad	58	70	64	RW-paired LaunchLab fees	Still large 7d; cool continues	Beat claim dead; multi-day cool	Llama `stonkfun`
Pons	Robinhood Chain	Launchpad leader	48	74	55	RH meme fee flywheel	Huge 30d; cliff 1d	Sep 29 gas cliff + Summit	Llama `pons`; RH presents
Arcus Perps	Robinhood Chain	Early beta perps	58	48	53	RH multi-asset perps fees	NEW Llama fee print $50k	Cliff; Spot 0%; geo; spike	Llama `arcus-perps`
Derive	Derive/ETH	Options/perps	62	38	50	Options fees; V3 DIP	Soft again	Scale; V3 unshipped	Llama `derive`; forum

3) WATCHLIST CHANGES vs Sun Sep 27 ~09:30 ET

NEW

Item	Note	Label
Arcus Perps (ranked #7)	Digest Early lead verified on Llama this pull: fees/rev $50k/$46k 24h, TVL ~$26M. Spot Stock Tokens = 0% fee (no adapter). Points→airdrop narrative remains unverified on official docs → fee-rank only, not airdrop rank.	Fact fees/TVL; Speculative token path
Neutral Trade (Solana vaults)	Funded USDC / systematic vault marketplace; Llama TVL ~$23.9M; fees 24h only ~$393 (rev same). Company claims >$200M deposited since launch — not ProtocolRevenue scale. Watch, not ranked.	Fact Llama slug `neutral-trade`; fee path too thin to rank
pump.fun Mobile App child	Llama child fees 24h $421k — useful check on “app near ATH” volume claim; still do not equate volume to fees.	Fact Llama

RISING

Item	vs Sun	Evidence
Lighter 24h fees/rev	$84k/$82k → $108k/$103k (+29%/+26%)	Llama — weekend crush reverse
Lighter RH Perps rev	$39k → $47k (+20%)	Llama
Pump.fun 7d rev	$9.14M → $9.65M	Llama — 7d lead vs StonkFun widens
LaunchLab fees 24h	$178k → $249k (+40%)	Llama — StonkFun rail context (don’t double-count)
Arcus Perps	Not ranked Sun → NEW #7	Llama fee adapter
Jumper sale window	Opens tomorrow Sep 29 13:00 UTC → Oct 2	CoinGabbar / Bitbase / ICO Drops / Legion

FADING

Item	vs Sun	Evidence
Pump.fun 24h fees/rev	$2.70M/$2.00M → $2.11M/$1.56M (−22%/−22%)	Llama — weekend spike cool
StonkFun 24h + 7d	$583k → $529k; 7d $8.55M → $8.01M; holders $350k → $287k	Llama — multi-day cool
Pons 24h fees/rev	$1.68M/$249k → $1.31M/$191k (−22%/−23%)	Llama
RH Chain fees 24h	$91k → $68k (−25%)	Llama — pre-cliff accelerate
Meteora parent 24h fees	$1.32M → $863k (−35%); TVL ~$331M → ~$323M	Llama
Meteora DBC 24h fees	$66k → $39k (−40%)	Llama — third soft day
Arc TVL	~$527M → ~$519M	Llama — first soft day
Derive 24h fees/rev	$16.5k/$12.7k → $14.9k/$11.5k	Llama
StonkFun mcap	~$232M → ~$199–205M	Llama

REMOVED / NOT PROMOTED

Variational Omni — zero-fee perps + points/Q4 TGE → Airdrops handoff, not Radar fee hit.
Neutral Trade — watch only (fees ~$393/d).
Rally — still unverified fee path / primary product (search still hits legacy Rally.io or RH memes).
Jumper — watch / ICO catalyst (sale opens tomorrow); no ProtocolRevenue adapter.
Hyperliquid — mature large-cap; Oct 3 buybacks = calendar note only.
Exponent — still watch only (fees 24h ~$3.8k; lumpy).
UsePaid / $PAID — fee-bridge docs live; no Llama fee slug → watch.
SPX6900 / Murad — meme → Misses / Meme Trenches.
AI coins / trading bots (NEAR, Venice, etc.) — narrative only unless early fee-path protocol appears.
0xQuit / Phoenix / Hashi / Puffer / Tesoro / Long.xyz / Axis — fee path weak/absent or TVL-only.
Reya Season 2 Sep 28 rumor — Airdrops notes: today’s digest omits it; treat as rumor.

UNCHANGED / MONITOR

UsePaid / XMoney — fee bridge: creator fees → treasury → 80% USD via X Money / 20% $PAID buyback-burn (docs). Capital-flow notes Pons path issues historically. $PAID Llama fee slug still absent.
RH stock tokens / tokenized equities — real test is post–Sep 29 (~1d) and Summit messaging.
Lighter Robinhood Perps line — rebound today; cliff tomorrow.
Arc week-2+ retention — TVL soft day $519M; need next official USDC print vs week-1 ~$624–628M.
Jumper JUMP Legion — Sep 29 13:00 UTC → Oct 2 13:00 UTC; US/UK excluded; ~$2M target / $3M hard cap (ICO Drops).
Fables RH LP points — ends Oct 5 (Airdrops continuity; not a fee-Radar hit).
Switchboard oracle EOL — support end was Fri Sep 25; Solana DeFi migration risk still open.

4) MISSES TO AVOID

Miss	Why
Pure meme tickers (SPX6900, Artificial Inu, single-name stock-pair memes, $PAID lottery)	Platforms OK; tickers = Misses / Meme Trenches
Digest / founder “~$62M app volume near ATH” as fee proof	Volume ≠ Llama fees; launchpad fees cooled −22%; mobile-app fees $421k
Digest claim “StonkFun beat Pump+Pons”	Failed again — loses vs Pump alone on 7d ($8.01M vs $9.65M)
Ranking Variational as fee hit	Zero-fee model; points/Q4 TGE = Airdrops, not ProtocolRevenue
Ranking Neutral Trade on deposit narrative	Llama fees ~$393/d — too thin
Treating Arcus points narrative as Fact	Official docs lack points→airdrop page; rank on Perps fees only
Rally as ranked fee hit	Still unverified primary + fee path
Jumper JUMP as near-term ProtocolRevenue	Legion sale ≠ fee adapter; US/UK excluded
UsePaid $PAID as launched accrual token	Docs live; no Llama slug
Double-counting DBC + Believe/Bags / LaunchLab + StonkFun	Same underlying rail risk
Treating Pump parent ~$7.8M fees as launchpad-only	Use `pump.fun` slug for apples-to-apples
Assuming RH activity survives cliff unchanged	Chain fees already $68k (−25% vs Sun $91k); Summit may distract or re-rate — both ways
Reading Lighter rebound as cliff immunity	RH Perps up today; subsidy still ends tomorrow

5) WHAT COULD I BE WRONG ABOUT?

Sep 29 cliff is a non-event — If RH wallets abstract gas or Summit unveils a new subsidy/stock-token UX, Pons/Lighter-RH/Arcus may hold better than the fee cool implies.
Summit announcements re-rate RH Chain upward — Same-day cliff + product unveil could increase sticky stock-token demand even as meme mints pay gas.
Pump Mon cool is the new baseline — Or Tue reclaims weekend levels and 7d lead extends further.
StonkFun methodology under/over-counts — Press and Llama have disagreed on cumulative scale before; an adapter revision could re-rank overnight.
Arc TVL soft day is noise — Or the start of post-incentive outflows from Morpho/Aave.
Lighter rebound is transient — Tomorrow’s cliff could re-crush RH-leg fees regardless of today’s +29%.
Arcus +278% is a one-day spike — 7d is only $166k; mean-revert could drop it below Derive quickly.
UsePaid is a durable fee bridge — Or a meme-cycle UX that dies when X Money / Pump attention fades.
Jumper sale is a nothing-burger for Radar — Or the spin-out + perps/RWA pitch creates a real fee path once Llama prints exist.
Neutral Trade fee adapter understates take — Manager fees may sit off the Llama methodology; a revision could promote it.

METRIC APPENDIX — Sun baseline → Mon refresh (Fact, Llama unless noted)

Protocol	Sun ~09:03–09:06 ET	Mon ~09:18–09:19 ET	Δ
Pump.fun fees 24h	$2.70M	$2.11M	↓
Pump.fun rev 24h	$2.00M	$1.56M	↓
Pump.fun holders 24h	$1.41M	$1.24M	↓
Pump.fun rev 7d	$9.14M	$9.65M	↑
Pump parent fees/rev 24h	$9.01M / $3.14M	$7.77M / $2.46M	↓
pump.fun Mobile App fees/rev 24h	—	$421k / $192k	NEW lens
StonkFun rev 24h	$583k	$529k	↓
StonkFun rev 7d	$8.55M	$8.01M	↓
StonkFun holders 24h	$350k	$287k	↓
StonkFun mcap	~$232M	~$199–205M	↓
Pons fees 24h	$1.68M	$1.31M	↓
Pons rev 24h	$249k	$191k	↓
Pons rev 7d	$2.32M	$2.21M	↓
Pons mcap	~$423M	~$368M	↓
Lighter fees 24h	$84k	$108k	↑
Lighter rev 24h	$82k	$103k	↑
Lighter TVL	~$762M	~$764M	≈↑
Lighter RH Perps rev 24h	$39k	$47k	↑
Meteora fees 24h	$1.32M	$863k	↓
Meteora TVL	~$331M	~$323M	↓
DBC fees 24h	$66k	$39k	↓
Arc TVL	~$527M	~$519M	↓
Derive fees/rev 24h	$16.5k / $12.7k	$14.9k / $11.5k	↓
Arcus Perps fees/rev 24h	—	$50k / $46k	NEW
Arcus Perps TVL	—	~$26M	NEW
Neutral Trade fees/TVL	—	~$393 / ~$23.9M	watch
Exponent fees 24h	$3.5k	$3.8k	≈
LaunchLab fees 24h	$178k	$249k	↑
RH Chain fees 24h	$91k	$68k	↓
RH Chain rev 24h	$82k	$60k	↓
RH Chain TVL	~$1.03B	~$1.02B	≈↓
RH gas cliff	Sep 29 (~2d)	Sep 29 (~1d)	—
DIGEST	OK (Sep 27 08:05 ET)	OK (Sep 28 08:06 ET)	refreshed

Beat math (Mon): StonkFun 7d $8.01M vs Pump.fun $9.65M (loses alone; gap widened) vs Pump+Pons $11.86M → combined claim FAILED. 24h Pump.fun $1.56M >> StonkFun $529k.

Pack saved: /workspace/crypto-packs/2026-09-28/radar.md Continuity copy: /workspace/crypto-radar/2026-09-28/morning-pack.md Compiled ~09:20 ET Mon Sep 28, 2026 · Llama pulls ~09:18–09:19 ET

Sources / technical notes

DIGEST status: DIGEST_OK. https://makcapitaldaily.grok.me — browser-rendered As-of 2026-09-28 08:06 ET (live morning issue; box-browser warm).
Fetch caveat: Plain HTTP/WebFetch returned a stale Sep 22 22:43 ET SSR/cache body; browser-rendered As-of is authoritative for the digest. Digest leads were treated as leads only; fee/TVL figures were re-pulled for this pack.
Digest leads retained as context: Pumpfun app-volume claim (volume ≠ fees), Variational zero-fee perps/points, Arcus fee-ranked candidate, Neutral Trade watch, and AI/trading-bot narrative watch.
Sources: DefiLlama API and public protocol/event sources cited inline; RH subsidy window sources include Motley Fool, The Defiant, KuCoin, Gate, BigNewsNetwork, and CopyTradeInsider; HOOD event dates are from Robinhood Presents. Pulls were ~09:18–09:19 ET.
Pack path: /workspace/crypto-packs/2026-09-28/radar.md; continuity copy: /workspace/crypto-radar/2026-09-28/morning-pack.md.
Compiled ~09:20 ET Mon Sep 28, 2026.