Upcoming Crypto Radar
Upcoming Crypto Radar — Morning Pack
As-of: Sat Sep 26, 2026 ~09:30 ET (America/New_York)
Browser-skim Early / narrative leads (verify, don’t rubber-stamp): tokenized stocks / on-chain equity speculation; UsePaid / XMoney creator-fee payouts; improving crypto regulatory clarity; Early radar: UsePaid/XMoney, 0xQuit NFT rescue tooling, Variational perp DEX + airdrop, Axis Prime.
Label key: Fact = on-chain / Llama / named primary · Estimate = derived / secondary · Speculative = narrative / unconfirmed path.
CLIFF CLOCK
Robinhood Chain gas subsidy ends Sep 29, 2026 @ 11:59 p.m. EST → ~3 calendar days from this brief (Fact, Motley Fool / The Defiant / KuCoin / Gate / BigNewsNetwork cite offer window).
RH Chain Llama (~09:02 ET): chain fees 24h $141k (−20% 1d) / rev $126k; chain TVL ~$1.03B (Fact, Llama). Pre-cliff fee cool continues into weekend.
1) RANKED HITS (7)
#1 Pump.fun (Solana launchpad) — Radar 91
| Trusted | 89 |
| Revenue | 94 |
| Radar | 91 = 0.5×(89+94) = 91.5 → 91 |
| Stage | Mature launchpad + buybacks / holder rewards |
| Thesis | Durable Solana fee machine; reclaiming 24h lead hard as StonkFun cools. |
| Why now | Fresh Llama: launchpad fees/rev up again vs Fri; 24h rev now clearly ahead of StonkFun. |
| Biggest risk | Narrative fatigue; regulatory overhang; Custom Pairs still weak vs stock-pair competitors. |
Fact metrics (Llama pump.fun, ~09:02–09:03 ET):
- Fees 24h $1.72M · 7d $11.35M · 30d $45.28M
- Revenue 24h $1.23M · 7d $8.19M · 30d $32.55M
- Holders rev 24h $869k · 7d $5.67M · 30d $23.45M
vs Fri (~09:12–09:13 ET): rev 24h $1.21M → $1.23M (↑); fees 24h $1.65M → $1.72M (↑); holders 24h $812k → $869k (↑); 7d rev $8.12M → $8.19M (↑).
Parent slugpump(combined): fees 24h $6.06M / rev $1.96M (Fact) — do not confuse with launchpad-only.
Sources: https://defillama.com/protocol/pump.fun · Llama API summary/fees/pump.fun
#2 StonkFun (Solana) — Radar 74
| Trusted | 67 (real fees; −35% 1d cool; holders soft; digest “beat” claim discounted) |
| Revenue | 80 |
| Radar | 74 = 0.5×(67+80) = 73.5 → 74 |
| Stage | Early breakout launchpad (~Aug origin / LaunchLab rails) |
| Thesis | Stock-/RW-paired LaunchLab rails + locked LP fee harvest + STONK buybacks. |
| Why now | 7d revenue still ahead of pump.fun launchpad alone; 24h and holders cooled hard again — multi-day fade watch. |
| Biggest risk | Thesis check — digest “beat Pump+Pons” FAILED again. Weekend fade + fee-adapter disputes; competing stock-pair rails (Meteora StockLaunch, Long.xyz). |
Fact metrics (Llama stonkfun, fees≈revenue per methodology):
- Rev/Fees 24h $779k (−35% 1d) · 7d $8.94M · 30d $23.64M
- Holders rev 24h $349k (−37% 1d) · 7d $4.33M · 30d $11.71M
- mcap ~$231M (Llama protocol; Fri ~$268M)
vs Fri: 24h $930k → $779k; 7d $8.32M → $8.94M (rolling window ↑); holders 24h $371k → $349k.
Beat check (Fact, ~09:03 ET): - StonkFun 7d $8.94M vs pump.fun 7d $8.19M → beats Pump launchpad alone (~$750k).
- vs Pons 7d rev $2.54M → beats Pons alone.
- vs Pump+Pons combined 7d $10.73M → does not beat.
- 24h: Pump.fun $1.23M >> StonkFun $779k (Pump reclaiming daily tape).
- 30d Pump $32.55M >> StonkFun $23.64M.
Sources: Llama API stonkfun · SolanaFloor / Blockworks (context only on product design)
#3 Meteora / DBC / StockLaunch (Solana) — Radar 73
| Trusted | 76 |
| Revenue | 70 |
| Radar | 73 |
| Stage | Infra + DBC integrator rails; StockLaunch product live |
| Thesis | Parent fee stack (DLMM etc.) + DBC as Solana stock-paired launch infra vs StonkFun. |
| Why now | Parent 24h fees rebound vs Fri; DBC cooled after Fri’s +71% spike — mean-reversion, not death. |
| Biggest risk | DBC is integrator infra (Believe/Bags overlap — don’t double-count); protocol take is minority of DBC fees. |
Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:02–09:03 ET):
- Meteora (parent) fees 24h $1.18M / rev $144k · 7d fees $8.27M / rev $984k · 30d fees $29.09M / rev $3.41M · TVL ~$326M
- Meteora Dynamic Bonding Curve fees 24h $87k / rev $15.9k · 7d fees $487k / rev $89k · 30d fees $1.24M / rev $229k
vs Fri: parent fees 24h $1.09M → $1.18M (↑); DBC fees 24h $116k → $87k (↓ −25%); parent TVL ~$322M → ~$326M; parent 30d fees $28.6M → $29.1M (↑).
StockLaunch: Backpack-issued stock quote pairs on DBC (Fact product existence; fee schedule integrator-configurable — Estimate on share).
Sources: Llama meteora, meteora-dynamic-bonding-curve · Solana Compass / Meteora docs (StockLaunch)
#4 Lighter (zkLighter / ETH + Robinhood Chain) — Radar 71
| Trusted | 78 |
| Revenue | 64 |
| Radar | 71 |
| Stage | Live perps DEX + bridge TVL; RH expansion |
| Thesis | Verifiable perps + fee→buyback path; RH Chain perps add distribution. |
| Why now | TVL still ~$756M (↑ vs Fri); 24h fees cooled again (−10% 1d) into cliff window. |
| Biggest risk | Zero-fee retail model depends on premium/staking economics; volume share vs Hyperliquid; RH cliff (~3d) may cut RH-leg activity. |
Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:02–09:03 ET):
- Lighter fees 24h $182k / rev $164k · 7d fees $1.49M / rev $1.19M · 30d fees $5.23M / rev $4.46M
- TVL ~$756M (Eth ~$651M + Robinhood Chain ~$105M + Arb ~$2k)
- Lighter Robinhood Perps fees 24h $73k / rev $67k · 7d fees $524k / rev $479k · 30d fees $1.65M / rev $1.50M
vs Fri: fees 24h $203k → $182k (↓); rev 24h $186k → $164k (↓); TVL ~$749M → ~$756M (↑); RH Perps rev 24h $72k → $67k (↓).
Sources: Llama API lighter, lighter-robinhood-perps, tvl/lighter
#5 Arc (Circle L1) — Radar 69
| Trusted | 82 (Circle launch + Llama chain TVL + Sep 24 week-1 print) |
| Revenue | 56 (app fees exist; no Llama chain-fee adapter; ARC token not public float) |
| Radar | 69 = 0.5×(82+56) = 69 |
| Stage | Mainnet day 10 (launched Sep 16, 2026 per Circle / CoinGabbar) |
| Thesis | USDC-gas economic OS; institutional validators; Morpho/Aave/Uniswap early deposits. |
| Why now | Llama TVL up again vs Fri ($484M → $503M); week-2 retention still holding into weekend. |
| Biggest risk | Early numbers often incentivized; lending concentration (Morpho/Aave); token accrual path unclear. |
Fact metrics (~09:02 ET):
- Llama chain TVL ~$503M (vs Fri ~$484M → rising; vs Thu ~$446M)
- Week-1 official/secondary (Sep 24, still latest official print): USDC circ $624M, USDC transferred $6.8B (Fact as reported)
- Llama
Arcchain fees adapter: none (empty/400 on summary)
Sources: https://defillama.com/chain/Arc · Circle / CoinGabbar week-one (Sep 24)
#6 Pons (Robinhood Chain launchpad) — Radar 65 (cliff override −4 from raw ~69)
| Trusted | 60 (subsidy-distorted usage; pre-cliff multi-day fade) |
| Revenue | 78 |
| Raw Radar | ~69 → override 65 (Sep 29 cliff ~3d + fees still soft) |
| Stage | Dominant RH meme launchpad |
| Thesis | High gross fees; protocol retains minority of fees; buybacks. |
| Why now | Still huge 30d print, but pre-cliff cool continues into weekend (fees −11% 1d; RH chain fees −20% 1d). |
| Biggest risk | Gas subsidy ends Sep 29 (~3d). Launchpad volume already cooled; memecoin mix vs RH’s stock-token pitch. |
Fact metrics (Llama pons, ~09:02–09:03 ET):
- Fees 24h $1.61M · 7d $16.96M · 30d $147.64M
- Revenue 24h $245k · 7d $2.54M · 30d $25.52M
- Holders rev 24h $132k · 7d $1.55M · 30d $15.83M
- mcap ~$433M
vs Fri: fees 24h $1.82M → $1.61M (↓ −11%); rev 24h $256k → $245k (↓ −4%); holders $126k → $132k (≈↑); 7d rev $2.75M → $2.54M (↓).
Sources: Llama API pons · Motley Fool / The Defiant / KuCoin / Gate on Sep 29 subsidy end
#7 Derive — Radar 56
| Trusted | 68 |
| Revenue | 44 |
| Radar | 56 |
| Stage | Live options/perps; V3 DIP proposed |
| Thesis | Onchain options fee path; V3 zkVM/Ethereum settlement proposal is catalyst if passed. |
| Why now | Fees/rev up vs Fri (+19% fees 1d); TVL slightly soft. |
| Biggest risk | Fee scale tiny vs launchpads/perps leaders; V3 is proposal not ship (Speculative timeline). |
Fact metrics (Llama derive, ~09:02–09:03 ET):
- Fees 24h $27.9k / rev $20.1k · 7d fees $216k / rev $164k · 30d fees $623k / rev $496k
- TVL ~$190M
vs Fri: fees 24h $23.5k → $27.9k (↑); rev 24h $18.1k → $20.1k (↑); TVL ~$192M → ~$190M (≈↓).
Sources: Llama derive · forums.derive.xyz DIP V3
2) SUMMARY TABLE
| Project | Chain | Stage | Trusted | Revenue | Radar | Thesis | Why now | Biggest risk | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun | Solana | Mature launchpad | 89 | 94 | 91 | Bonding-curve + buybacks | Fees/rev ↑ vs Fri; 24h reclaim | Reg / share wars | Llama pump.fun |
| StonkFun | Solana | Early launchpad | 67 | 80 | 74 | RW-paired LaunchLab fees | 7d still > Pump alone | “Beat Pump+Pons” false; 24h −35% | Llama stonkfun |
| Meteora/DBC | Solana | DEX + DBC infra | 76 | 70 | 73 | Fees + StockLaunch rails | Parent fees ↑; DBC cooled | Integrator overlap | Llama meteora / DBC |
| Lighter | ETH / RH / Arb | Live perps | 78 | 64 | 71 | Perps + buybacks + RH leg | TVL holds; fees soft | Zero-fee model; RH cliff | Llama lighter |
| Arc | Arc (Circle) | Mainnet d10 | 82 | 56 | 69 | USDC-gas L1 DeFi | TVL $503M ↑ vs Fri | Lending conc.; weak token path | Llama chain; Circle |
| Pons | Robinhood Chain | Launchpad leader | 60 | 78 | 65 | RH meme fee flywheel | Huge 30d; daily cool | Sep 29 gas cliff (~3d) | Llama pons; Defiant |
| Derive | Derive/ETH | Options/perps | 68 | 44 | 56 | Options fees; V3 DIP | Fees/rev ↑ day | Scale; V3 unshipped | Llama derive; forum |
3) WATCHLIST CHANGES vs Fri Sep 25 ~09:30 ET
NEW
| Item | Note | Label |
|---|---|---|
| UsePaid / XMoney (Solana + Pons rails) | Digest Early radar. Live fee bridge: token creator fees → treasury → 80% USD via X Money / 20% $PAID buyback-burn (docs). Product site shows live payouts & Kraken→X Money off-ramps dated Sep 26. Supports Pump + Pons launches. $PAID “has not been issued” per project docs (pending buybacks accrue). No Llama fee slug yet → watch, not ranked hit. Ticker $PAID = trenches unless protocol fee adapter appears. | Fact (product/docs/site activity); Speculative durable protocol take |
| 0xQuit / nftsaresafu.xyz | Digest Early. Yuga-adjacent NFT rescue claim portal (~23k rescued NFTs cited in press). Infra/security tooling — not a fee-accrual hit. | Fact product; Miss for Radar revenue |
| Axis / Axis Prime | Digest Early. Llama axis TVL ~$56M (Basis Trading, Ethereum). No fee adapter (summary empty). Watch TVL/product only until fee path prints. | Fact TVL; Speculative fee accrual |
| Variational Omni | Digest Early + airdrop heat. Points live (150k/wk); TGE talk Q4 2026 / Genesis 32% claims in secondary blogs. Crowded farm; no Llama ProtocolRevenue confirmation in this pull. | Fact points program exists; Speculative near-term fee hit |
RISING
| Item | vs Fri | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun 24h | Rev $1.21M → $1.23M; fees $1.65M → $1.72M; holders $812k → $869k | Llama |
| Meteora parent 24h fees | $1.09M → $1.18M | Llama |
| Arc TVL | ~$484M → ~$503M | Llama chains |
| Derive 24h fees/rev | $23.5k/$18.1k → $27.9k/$20.1k | Llama |
| UsePaid live payouts | Not on Fri ranked pack → NEW product heat | usepaid.app (Sep 26 activity) |
FADING
| Item | vs Fri | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| StonkFun 24h + holders | $930k → $779k (−35% 1d); holders $371k → $349k | Llama — multi-day cool |
| Lighter 24h fees/rev | $203k/$186k → $182k/$164k | Llama |
| Pons fees/rev 24h | $1.82M/$256k → $1.61M/$245k | Llama — pre-cliff |
| Meteora DBC 24h fees | $116k → $87k (−25%) | Llama — Fri spike mean-reverted |
| RH Chain fees 24h | $175k → $141k (−20%) | Llama |
| Exponent fees 24h | $109k → $57k (−48%) | Llama — still lumpy; watch only |
| StonkFun mcap | ~$268M → ~$231M | Llama |
REMOVED / NOT PROMOTED
- Exponent — remains watch (Fri spike faded ~half; still lumpy).
- Phoenix / Hashi / Puffer — not ranked (fee path weak/absent; Puffer Stake fees ~$0).
- Tesoro / Long.xyz — remain early RH watches; no durable Llama fee slug promotion.
- Aerodrome Slipstream V3 — mature Base DEX (fees 24h ~$328k / rev ~$216k) — watch product, not early hit.
- 0xQuit — tooling ≠ fee radar.
- Reya / Kalshi / Seeker — no fresh ProtocolRevenue confirmation today.
UNCHANGED / MONITOR
- RH stock tokens / tokenized equities narrative — real test is post–Sep 29 (~3d). Digest narrative heat aligns.
- Lighter Robinhood Perps line — still live; fees soft day-over-day.
- Puffer UniFi × Google Cloud Preconf — announcement stands; fees still ~$0.
- Arc week-2+ retention — TVL up to $503M; need next official USDC print vs week-1 $624M.
- Switchboard oracle EOL — support end was Fri Sep 25; migration risk to Solana DeFi still open (Pyth/RedStone). Infra risk, not a fee hit.
- LaunchLab (Raydium rails under StonkFun etc.): fees 24h ~$574k / rev ~$108k — context for StonkFun stack, don’t double-count as separate hit.
4) MISSES TO AVOID
| Miss | Why |
|---|---|
| Pure meme tickers (single-name pumps, $PAID as lottery) | Platforms OK; tickers = misses / Meme Trenches |
| Digest claim “StonkFun beat Pump+Pons” | Failed again on combined 7d Llama revenue ($8.94M vs $10.73M) |
| Treating Fri DBC +71% as trend | Reversed to −25% today |
| UsePaid $PAID as launched accrual token | Docs: $PAID not issued yet; pending buybacks |
| 0xQuit as revenue hit | Rescue tooling, not fee rails |
| Variational as near-term fee print | Points/OTC heat ≠ Llama ProtocolRevenue |
| Axis Prime as fee hit today | TVL exists; no fee adapter |
| Reya as near-term fee hit | No fresh confirmation |
| Hashi / Puffer×Google as revenue events | No / ~$0 Llama fees |
| Double-counting DBC + Believe/Bags / LaunchLab + StonkFun | Same underlying rail risk |
| Treating Pump parent ~$6.1M fees as launchpad-only | Use pump.fun slug for apples-to-apples |
| Assuming RH activity survives cliff unchanged | Chain fees already −20% day; Pons soft |
5) WHAT COULD I BE WRONG ABOUT?
- Sep 29 cliff is a non-event — If RH users already pay priority/other costs or wallets abstract gas, Pons/Lighter-RH may hold better than the subsidy narrative implies.
- StonkFun 24h crash is weekend noise — 7d still beats Pump alone; a Monday rebound could restore #2 separation.
- StonkFun methodology under/over-counts — Press and Llama have disagreed on cumulative scale before; an adapter revision could re-rank overnight.
- Arc TVL is rented — Bridged Morpho/Aave deposits may leave after points/incentives; $503M may not be “organic.”
- Lighter zero-fee retail — Soft days may be noise, or early signal of share loss / RH-leg pullback ahead of cliff.
- UsePaid is a durable fee bridge — Or a meme-cycle UX that dies when X Money / Pump+Pons attention fades; no Llama adapter yet.
- Pump share recovery is durable — Or StonkFun’s cool is temporary buyback/graduation timing.
- Stock-token demand is real — If post-cliff RH activity skews to tokenized equities (not memes), Pons fades but RH Chain / Long / stock rails rise.
- Switchboard EOL aftermath — Forced liquidations / migration chaos could temporarily spike or crush Solana DeFi fee prints this weekend.
- Exponent harvest days — Lumpy $57k (from Fri $109k) could re-spike if yield-exchange volumes stick.
METRIC APPENDIX — Fri baseline → Sat refresh (Fact, Llama unless noted)
| Protocol | Fri ~09:12–09:13 ET | Sat ~09:02–09:03 ET | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun fees 24h | $1.65M | $1.72M | ↑ |
| Pump.fun rev 24h | $1.21M | $1.23M | ↑ |
| Pump.fun holders 24h | $812k | $869k | ↑ |
| Pump.fun rev 7d | $8.12M | $8.19M | ↑ |
| StonkFun rev 24h | $930k | $779k | ↓ |
| StonkFun rev 7d | $8.32M | $8.94M | ↑ (window) |
| StonkFun holders 24h | $371k | $349k | ↓ |
| StonkFun mcap | ~$268M | ~$231M | ↓ |
| Pons fees 24h | $1.82M | $1.61M | ↓ |
| Pons rev 24h | $256k | $245k | ↓ |
| Pons rev 7d | $2.75M | $2.54M | ↓ |
| Lighter fees 24h | $203k | $182k | ↓ |
| Lighter rev 24h | $186k | $164k | ↓ |
| Lighter TVL | ~$749M | ~$756M | ↑ |
| Lighter RH Perps rev 24h | $72k | $67k | ↓ |
| Meteora fees 24h | $1.09M | $1.18M | ↑ |
| Meteora 30d fees | $28.6M | $29.1M | ↑ |
| DBC fees 24h | $116k | $87k | ↓ |
| Arc TVL | ~$484M | ~$503M | ↑ |
| Derive fees/rev 24h | $23.5k / $18.1k | $27.9k / $20.1k | ↑ |
| Exponent fees 24h | $109k | $57k | ↓ (spiky) |
| RH Chain fees 24h | $175k | $141k | ↓ |
| RH Chain TVL | ~$1.01B | ~$1.03B | ↑ |
| RH gas cliff | Sep 29 (~4d) | Sep 29 (~3d) | — |
| DIGEST | STALE (Sep 22) | OK (Sep 26 08:01 ET) | refreshed |
Beat math (Sat): StonkFun 7d $8.94M vs Pump.fun $8.19M (wins alone) vs Pump+Pons $10.73M → combined claim FAILED. 24h Pump.fun $1.23M >> StonkFun $779k.
Sources / technical notes
- Sources: Digest (browser-warm) + public WebSearch/WebFetch + DefiLlama API (
api.llama.fi) pulled ~09:02–09:03 ET. - DIGEST: https://makcapitaldaily.grok.me — As-of 2026-09-26 08:01 ET (~1.2–1.5h at brief) → DIGEST_OK (Chief of Staff / box-browser warm).
- Fetch note: Plain HTTP/WebFetch still returned a Sep 22 22:43 ET SSR/cache body; browser As-of is authoritative. Digest leads only — fee/TVL figures re-pulled Sep 26.
- Compiled ~09:30 ET Sat Sep 26, 2026 · Llama pulls ~09:02–09:03 ET.