Upcoming Crypto Radar
Upcoming Crypto Radar — Morning Pack
As-of: Fri Sep 25, 2026 ~09:30 ET (America/New_York)
Sources: Public WebSearch/WebFetch + DefiLlama API (api.llama.fi) pulled ~09:12–09:13 ET.
DIGEST STATUS — STALE
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Digest URL | https://makcapitaldaily.grok.me |
| DIGEST_ASOF | 2026-09-22 22:43 ET |
| Age at brief (~09:15 ET Sep 25) | ~58.5 hours (~58–59h) |
| Status | DIGEST STALE |
Same Sep 22 content (launchpad war, RH stock-token teaser, StonkFun/Pump/Pons, Derive, Puffer, Meteora, Seeker, Variational, Reya rumor, Kalshi, Canada deposits). Used only as weak leads. All metrics below are re-pulled Sep 25; Thu figures are baselines for Δ only — not copied. Social “beat Pump+Pons” claims are re-checked and not rubber-stamped.
Label key: Fact = on-chain / Llama / named primary source · Estimate = derived or secondary aggregator · Speculative = narrative / unconfirmed path.
CLIFF CLOCK
Robinhood Chain gas subsidy ends Sep 29, 2026 @ 11:59 p.m. EST → ~4 calendar days from this brief (Fact, Motley Fool / The Defiant / KuCoin / Robinhood support offer window cited across Sep press).
RH Chain Llama (~09:13 ET): chain fees 24h $175k (−23% 1d) / rev $155k; chain TVL ~$1.01B (Fact, Llama). Pre-cliff fee cool continues.
1) RANKED HITS (7)
#1 Pump.fun (Solana launchpad) — Radar 90
| Trusted | 88 |
| Revenue | 93 |
| Radar | 90 = 0.5×(88+93) ≈ 90.5 → 90 |
| Stage | Mature launchpad + buybacks |
| Thesis | Durable Solana fee machine; reclaiming 24h lead vs StonkFun as competitor cools. |
| Why now | Fresh Llama: launchpad fees/rev up vs Thu; still dominates 30d. |
| Biggest risk | Narrative fatigue; regulatory overhang; Custom Pairs still weak vs stock-pair competitors. |
Fact metrics (Llama pump.fun, ~09:12–09:13 ET):
- Fees 24h $1.65M · 7d $11.29M · 30d $45.73M
- Revenue 24h $1.21M · 7d $8.12M · 30d $32.97M
- Holders rev 24h $812k · 7d $5.60M · 30d $23.77M
vs Thu (~09:22–09:26 ET): rev 24h $1.15M → $1.21M (↑); fees 24h $1.59M → $1.65M (↑); 7d rev ≈ flat $8.09M → $8.12M.
Parent slugpump(combined): fees 24h $5.49M / rev $1.88M (Fact) — do not confuse with launchpad-only.
Sources: https://defillama.com/protocol/pump.fun · Llama API summary/fees/pump.fun
#2 StonkFun (Solana) — Radar 77
| Trusted | 70 (real fees; stale digest callers discounted; holders-rev soft) |
| Revenue | 84 |
| Radar | 77 |
| Stage | Early breakout launchpad (~Aug 3 origin) |
| Thesis | Stock-/RW-paired LaunchLab rails + locked LP fee harvest + STONK buybacks. |
| Why now | 7d revenue still narrowly ahead of pump.fun launchpad; 24h and holders cooled again. |
| Biggest risk | Thesis check — digest “beat Pump+Pons” FAILED again. Multi-day fade risk; fee-adapter disputes; competing stock-pair rails (Meteora StockLaunch, Long.xyz). |
Fact metrics (Llama stonkfun, fees≈revenue per methodology):
- Rev/Fees 24h $930k (−3% 1d) · 7d $8.32M · 30d $21.93M
- Holders rev 24h $371k (−34% 1d) · 7d $3.94M · 30d $10.78M
- mcap ~$268M (Llama protocol)
vs Thu: 24h $958k → $930k; 7d $8.43M → $8.32M; holders 24h $563k → $371k.
Beat check (Fact, ~09:13 ET): - StonkFun 7d $8.32M vs pump.fun 7d $8.12M → beats Pump launchpad alone (narrow, ~$198k).
- vs Pons 7d rev $2.75M → beats Pons alone.
- vs Pump+Pons combined 7d $10.87M → does not beat.
- 30d Pump $33.0M >> StonkFun $21.9M.
Sources: Llama API stonkfun · https://bsc.news/news/stonkfun-beats-pumpfun-7-day-launchpad-revenue (context only)
#3 Lighter (zkLighter / ETH + Robinhood Chain) — Radar 74
| Trusted | 80 |
| Revenue | 68 |
| Radar | 74 |
| Stage | Live perps DEX + bridge TVL; RH expansion |
| Thesis | Verifiable perps + fee→buyback path; RH Chain perps add distribution. |
| Why now | TVL still ~$749M; RH perps remain a visible Llama line — but 24h fees cooled hard vs Thu. |
| Biggest risk | Zero-fee retail model depends on premium/staking economics; volume share vs Hyperliquid; RH cliff (~4d) may cut RH-leg activity. |
Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:12–09:13 ET):
- Lighter fees 24h $203k / rev $186k · 7d fees $1.54M / rev $1.23M · 30d fees $5.18M / rev $4.42M
- TVL ~$749M (Eth ~$648M + Robinhood Chain ~$101M + Arb ~$2k)
- Lighter Robinhood Perps fees 24h $75k / rev $72k · 7d fees $528k / rev $480k · 30d fees $1.61M / rev $1.47M
vs Thu: fees 24h $277k → $203k (↓ −27%); rev 24h $198k → $186k; TVL ~$746M → ~$749M (≈↑); RH Perps rev 24h $79k → $72k.
Sources: Llama API lighter, lighter-robinhood-perps, tvl/lighter
#4 Meteora / DBC / StockLaunch (Solana) — Radar 74
| Trusted | 76 |
| Revenue | 72 |
| Radar | 74 |
| Stage | Infra + DBC integrator rails; StockLaunch product live |
| Thesis | Parent fee stack (DLMM etc.) + DBC as Solana stock-paired launch infra vs StonkFun. |
| Why now | DBC 24h fees rebounded hard (+71% 1d) after Thu fade; parent 30d fees still grinding up. |
| Biggest risk | DBC is integrator infra (Believe/Bags overlap — don’t double-count); protocol take is minority of DBC fees; parent 24h soft. |
Fact metrics (Llama, ~09:12–09:13 ET):
- Meteora (parent) fees 24h $1.09M / rev $138k · 7d fees $8.36M / rev $996k · 30d fees $28.60M / rev $3.35M · TVL ~$322M
- Meteora Dynamic Bonding Curve fees 24h $116k / rev $20.3k · 7d fees $449k / rev $82k · 30d fees $1.19M / rev $219k
vs Thu: DBC fees 24h $68k → $116k (↑); parent fees 24h $1.26M → $1.09M (↓); parent 30d fees $28.2M → $28.6M (↑).
StockLaunch: Backpack-issued stock quote pairs on DBC (Fact product existence; fee schedule integrator-configurable — Estimate on share).
Sources: Llama meteora, meteora-dynamic-bonding-curve · Solana Compass / Meteora docs (StockLaunch)
#5 Pons (Robinhood Chain launchpad) — Radar 69 (cliff override −3 from raw ~72)
| Trusted | 64 (subsidy-distorted usage; digest discounted; pre-cliff fade) |
| Revenue | 80 |
| Raw Radar | ~72 → override 69 (Sep 29 cliff ~4d + fees/rev −26%/−28% 1d) |
| Stage | Dominant RH meme launchpad |
| Thesis | High gross fees; protocol retains minority of fees; buybacks. |
| Why now | Still huge 30d print, but pre-cliff fee collapse accelerating vs Thu. |
| Biggest risk | Gas subsidy ends Sep 29 (~4d). Launchpad volume already cooled; memecoin mix vs RH’s stock-token pitch. |
Fact metrics (Llama pons, ~09:12–09:13 ET):
- Fees 24h $1.82M · 7d $18.29M · 30d $147.53M
- Revenue 24h $256k · 7d $2.75M · 30d $25.56M
- Holders rev 24h $126k (+3% 1d after Thu crash) · 7d $1.63M · 30d $15.70M
- mcap ~$442M
vs Thu: fees 24h $2.44M → $1.82M (↓ −26%); rev 24h $355k → $256k (↓ −28%); holders $122k → $126k (stabilized after −84% Thu crash); 30d rev $25.51M → $25.56M (≈).
Sources: Llama API pons · Motley Fool / The Defiant / KuCoin on Sep 29 subsidy end
#6 Arc (Circle L1) — Radar 69
| Trusted | 82 (Circle launch + Llama chain TVL + Sep 24 week-1 print) |
| Revenue | 55 (app fees exist; no Llama chain-fee adapter; ARC token not public float) |
| Radar | 69 = 0.5×(82+55) ≈ 68.5 → 69 |
| Stage | Mainnet week 2 (launched Sep 16, 2026 per Circle / CoinGabbar) |
| Thesis | USDC-gas economic OS; institutional validators; Morpho/Aave/Uniswap early deposits. |
| Why now | Llama TVL up again vs Thu; entering week-2 retention test after Sep 24 week-1 print. |
| Biggest risk | Early numbers often incentivized; DEX volume already dipped mid-week-1 (NullTX Sep 22); token accrual path unclear. |
Fact metrics (~09:13 ET):
- Llama chain TVL ~$484M (vs Thu ~$446M → rising; vs Wed ~$383M)
- Week-1 official/secondary (Sep 24, still latest print): USDC circ $624M, USDC transferred $6.8B; Gate/Allaire also cited ~$700M on-chain assets / $7B USDC trading vol (Fact as reported)
- Llama
Arcchain fees adapter: none (400 on summary) - DEX-vol fade vs lending stickiness noted in Sep 22 NullTX (Fact/secondary)
Sources: https://defillama.com/chain/Arc · Circle / CoinGabbar week-one (Sep 24) · Gate News Allaire cite
#7 Derive — Radar 55
| Trusted | 68 |
| Revenue | 42 |
| Radar | 55 |
| Stage | Live options/perps; V3 DIP proposed |
| Thesis | Onchain options fee path; V3 zkVM/Ethereum settlement proposal is catalyst if passed. |
| Why now | Still real daily revenue, but soft vs Thu; TVL slightly up. |
| Biggest risk | Fee scale tiny vs launchpads/perps leaders; V3 is proposal not ship (Speculative timeline). |
Fact metrics (Llama derive, ~09:12–09:13 ET):
- Fees 24h $23.5k / rev $18.1k · 7d fees $227k / rev $175k · 30d fees $610k / rev $488k
- TVL ~$192M
vs Thu: rev 24h $20.3k → $18.1k (↓); TVL ~$189M → ~$192M (↑).
Sources: Llama derive · forums.derive.xyz DIP V3
2) SUMMARY TABLE
| Project | Chain | Stage | Trusted | Revenue | Radar | Thesis | Why now | Biggest risk | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun | Solana | Mature launchpad | 88 | 93 | 90 | Bonding-curve + buybacks | Rev/fees ↑ vs Thu | Reg / share wars | Llama pump.fun |
| StonkFun | Solana | Early launchpad | 70 | 84 | 77 | RW-paired LaunchLab fees | 7d still > Pump alone | “Beat Pump+Pons” false; holders ↓ | Llama stonkfun |
| Lighter | ETH / RH / Arb | Live perps | 80 | 68 | 74 | Perps + buybacks + RH leg | TVL holds; fees day soft | Zero-fee model; RH cliff | Llama lighter |
| Meteora/DBC | Solana | DEX + DBC infra | 76 | 72 | 74 | Fees + StockLaunch rails | DBC +71% day | Integrator overlap | Llama meteora / DBC |
| Pons | Robinhood Chain | Launchpad leader | 64 | 80 | 69 | RH meme fee flywheel | Huge 30d; daily collapse | Sep 29 gas cliff (~4d) | Llama pons; Defiant |
| Arc | Arc (Circle) | Mainnet wk2 | 82 | 55 | 69 | USDC-gas L1 DeFi | TVL $484M ↑ vs Thu | Week-2 fade; weak token path | Llama chain; Circle |
| Derive | Derive/ETH | Options/perps | 68 | 42 | 55 | Options fees; V3 DIP | Steady small rev | Scale; V3 unshipped | Llama derive; forum |
3) WATCHLIST CHANGES vs Thu Sep 24 ~09:30 ET
NEW
| Item | Note | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Aerodrome Slipstream V3 (Base) | Chaincatcher Sep 25: protocol-level MEV auctions + dynamic fees; Aero Lite Slipstream also on Arc. Mature DEX — watch product, not early hit. Llama Aerodrome fees 24h ~$385k / rev ~$244k; Slipstream fees ~$311k / rev ~$207k (~09:13 ET). | Fact (announcement + Llama) |
| Switchboard oracle EOL (Sep 25) | Full support end today; Solana DeFi migration risk (Kamino/Jito/MarginFi/Drift cited in press). Infra risk, not a fee hit. | Fact (announced EOL) |
| Junk Fun (Solana) | Meme-coin rent reclaim / burn-to-rewards mainnet; no Llama fee slug yet. Meme-adjacent → trenches handoff unless fee adapter appears. | Fact product; Speculative durable fees |
RISING
| Item | vs Thu | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun 24h | Rev $1.15M → $1.21M; fees $1.59M → $1.65M | Llama |
| Meteora DBC 24h fees | $68k → $116k (+71%) | Llama |
| Arc TVL | ~$446M → ~$484M | Llama chains |
| Exponent fees (spiky) | $564 → $109k 24h (still lumpy; 7d only $120k) | Llama — watch, not promote to hit |
| Derive TVL | ~$189M → ~$192M | Llama |
FADING
| Item | vs Thu | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Lighter 24h fees | $277k → $203k (−27%) | Llama |
| Pons fees/rev 24h | $2.44M/$355k → $1.82M/$256k | Llama — pre-cliff acceleration |
| StonkFun 24h + holders | $958k → $930k; holders $563k → $371k (−34%) | Llama |
| Meteora parent 24h fees | $1.26M → $1.09M | Llama |
| RH Chain fees 24h | $227k → $175k | Llama |
| Phoenix | Fees ~$14k but rev ~$0.59; TVL ~$1.08M | Llama — fade confirmed |
| Puffer Stake fees | Still ~$0/24h | Llama — partnership ≠ revenue |
| Hashi | Still no Llama fee path | — |
REMOVED / NOT PROMOTED
- Exponent — remains watch despite fee-spike day (48h was $564; lumpy harvest accounting).
- Phoenix / Hashi / Puffer — not ranked hits (fee path weak or absent).
- Tesoro / Long.xyz — remain early RH watches from Thu NEW; no durable Llama fee slug promotion today.
- Variational / Reya / Kalshi / Seeker — digest leftovers; no fresh ProtocolRevenue confirmation in this pull.
UNCHANGED / MONITOR
- RH stock tokens — real test is post–Sep 29 (~4d).
- Lighter Robinhood Perps line — still live; fees soft day-over-day.
- Puffer UniFi × Google Cloud Preconf — announcement stands; fees still ~$0.
- Arc week-2 retention — TVL up; need week-2 official USDC print vs week-1 $624M.
4) MISSES TO AVOID
| Miss | Why |
|---|---|
| Pure meme tickers (single-name pumps) | Platforms OK; tickers = misses / Meme Trenches |
| Digest claim “StonkFun beat Pump+Pons” | Failed again on combined 7d Llama revenue ($8.32M vs $10.87M) |
| Treating Thu Exponent $564 fade as permanent death | Spiked to $109k today — still too lumpy to rank |
| Reya as near-term fee hit | Prior ~$1k/24h; no fresh confirmation |
| Hashi as fee accrual today | No Llama fees |
| Puffer×Google as revenue event | Fees ~$0; infra PR ≠ protocol take |
| Aerodrome V3 as “early radar” | Mature Base DEX feature ship — watch only |
| Junk Fun as fee-path hit | No Llama adapter; meme-recycling UX |
| Double-counting DBC + Believe/Bags | Same underlying fee adapter risk |
| Treating Pump parent ~$5.5M fees as launchpad-only | Use pump.fun slug for apples-to-apples |
| Assuming RH activity survives cliff unchanged | Fees already −23% day on RH Chain |
5) WHAT COULD I BE WRONG ABOUT?
- Sep 29 cliff is a non-event — If RH users already pay priority/other costs or wallets abstract gas, Pons/Lighter-RH may hold better than the subsidy narrative implies.
- StonkFun methodology under/over-counts — Press and Llama have disagreed on cumulative scale before; a adapter revision could re-rank #2 vs #1 overnight.
- Arc TVL is rented — Bridged Morpho/Aave deposits may leave after points/incentives; $484M may not be “organic.”
- Lighter zero-fee retail — Soft day may be noise, or early signal of share loss / RH-leg pullback ahead of cliff.
- DBC rebound is one-day noise — +71% could reverse as fast as Thu’s fade.
- Pump share recovery is durable — Or StonkFun holders-rev crash (−34%) is temporary buyback timing.
- Puffer×Google — Could unlock fee path later; currently zero.
- Stock-token demand is real — If post-cliff RH activity skews to tokenized equities (not memes), Pons fades but RH Chain / Long / stock rails rise.
- Switchboard EOL — Forced liquidations / migration chaos could temporarily spike or crush Solana DeFi fee prints today.
- Exponent harvest days — Lumpy $109k print could sustain if yield-exchange volumes stick.
METRIC APPENDIX — Thu baseline → Fri refresh (Fact, Llama unless noted)
| Protocol | Thu ~09:25 ET | Fri ~09:12–09:13 ET | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun fees 24h | $1.59M | $1.65M | ↑ |
| Pump.fun rev 24h | $1.15M | $1.21M | ↑ |
| Pump.fun rev 7d | $8.09M | $8.12M | ≈↑ |
| StonkFun rev 24h | $958k | $930k | ↓ |
| StonkFun rev 7d | $8.43M | $8.32M | ↓ |
| StonkFun holders 24h | $563k | $371k | ↓ |
| Pons fees 24h | $2.44M | $1.82M | ↓ |
| Pons rev 24h | $355k | $256k | ↓ |
| Pons rev 30d | $25.51M | $25.56M | ≈ |
| Lighter fees 24h | $277k | $203k | ↓ |
| Lighter rev 24h | $198k | $186k | ↓ |
| Lighter TVL | ~$746M | ~$749M | ≈↑ |
| Lighter RH Perps rev 24h | $79k | $72k | ↓ |
| Meteora fees 30d | $28.2M | $28.6M | ↑ |
| DBC fees 24h | $68k | $116k | ↑ |
| Arc TVL | ~$446M | ~$484M | ↑ |
| Derive rev 24h | $20.3k | $18.1k | ↓ |
| Exponent fees 24h | $564 | $109k | ↑ (spiky) |
| RH Chain fees 24h | $227k | $175k | ↓ |
| RH Chain TVL | ~$1.00B | ~$1.01B | ≈ |
| RH gas cliff | Sep 29 (~5d) | Sep 29 (~4d) | — |
| DIGEST age | ~34–35h | ~58.5h | STALE↑ |
Beat math (Fri): StonkFun 7d $8.32M vs Pump.fun $8.12M (narrow win alone) vs Pump+Pons $10.87M → combined claim FAILED.
DISCLAIMER
Metrics can revise; Llama adapters and press figures can diverge. DIGEST STALE — Sep 22 social claims require independent confirmation.
Pack saved: /workspace/crypto-packs/2026-09-25/radar.md
Continuity copy: /workspace/crypto-radar/2026-09-25/morning-pack.md
Compiled ~09:30 ET Fri Sep 25, 2026 · Llama pulls ~09:12–09:13 ET