Upcoming Crypto Radar
Upcoming Crypto Radar — Morning Pack
As-of: Thu Sep 24, 2026 ~09:30 ET (America/New_York)
Mode: Research / risk only — not investment advice
Sources: Public WebSearch/WebFetch + DefiLlama API (api.llama.fi) pulled ~09:22–09:26 ET. No paid X API.
DIGEST STATUS — STALE
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Digest URL | https://makcapitaldaily.grok.me |
| DIGEST_ASOF | 2026-09-22 22:43 ET |
| Age at brief | ~34–35 hours |
| Status | DIGEST STALE |
Same Sep 22 content (launchpad war, RH stock-token teaser, StonkFun/Pump/Pons, Derive, Puffer, Meteora, Seeker, Variational, Reya rumor, Kalshi, Canada deposits). Used only as weak leads. All metrics below are re-pulled; Wed morning baseline figures are not copied. Social “beat Pump+Pons” claims are not rubber-stamped.
Label key: Fact = on-chain / Llama / named primary source · Estimate = derived or secondary aggregator · Speculative = narrative / unconfirmed path.
CLIFF CLOCK
Robinhood Chain gas subsidy ends Sep 29, 2026 → ~5 calendar days from this brief (Fact, Motley Fool Sep 11; Gate News Sep 21; CryptoBriefing via EdgeX Sep 17).
RH Chain Llama: chain fees 24h $227k / rev $203k; chain TVL ~$1.00B (Fact, Llama). Tokenized-stock balance cited ~$146M (Fact/Estimate, Gate News Sep 21 snapshot).
1) RANKED HITS (7)
#1 Pump.fun (Solana launchpad) — Radar 90
| Trusted | 88 |
| Revenue | 92 |
| Radar | 90 = 0.5×(88+92) |
| Stage | Mature launchpad + buybacks |
| Thesis | Still the durable Solana fee machine; digest “StonkFun dethroned Pump” overstates swing. |
| Why now | Fresh Llama shows pump.fun launchpad still printing; parent “Pump” combined fees even larger. |
| Biggest risk | Narrative fatigue; regulatory overhang; launchpad share wars. |
Fact metrics (Llama pump.fun, ~09:23 ET):
- Fees 24h $1.59M · 7d $11.29M · 30d $46.03M
- Revenue 24h $1.15M · 7d $8.09M · 30d $33.26M
- Holders rev 24h $761k · 7d $5.66M · 30d $24.09M
- Active addresses 24h 154,813 · txs 24h 3.25M (Llama protocol page)
vs Wed baseline: Wed rev 24h was $1.25M → today $1.15M (soft day, still #1 vs StonkFun/Pons on protocol revenue).
Parent slugpump(combined products): fees 24h $5.50M / rev $1.83M (Fact) — do not confuse with launchpad-only.
Sources: https://defillama.com/protocol/pump.fun · Llama API summary/fees/pump.fun
#2 StonkFun (Solana) — Radar 79
| Trusted | 72 (real fees; stale digest callers discounted; methodology noise) |
| Revenue | 85 |
| Radar | 79 |
| Stage | Early breakout launchpad (~Aug 3 origin per BSC.News) |
| Thesis | Stock-/RW-paired LaunchLab rails + locked LP fee harvest + STONK buybacks. |
| Why now | 7d revenue still neck-and-neck with pump.fun launchpad; 24h cooled vs Wed. |
| Biggest risk | Thesis check — digest “beat Pump+Pons” FAILED. Short-window headlines ≠ structural win. Fee-adapter disputes (some press cite lower cumulative vs Llama). Multiple competing stock-pair rails (Meteora StockLaunch, Long.xyz). |
Fact metrics (Llama stonkfun, fees=revenue per methodology):
- Rev/Fees 24h $958k (−24% 1d) · 7d $8.43M · 30d $21.03M
- Holders rev 24h $563k · 7d $4.04M · 30d $10.43M
- mcap ~$292M (Llama protocol)
vs Wed: Wed 24h $1.27M / 7d $8.13M → 24h down, 7d slightly up.
Beat check (Fact): StonkFun 7d rev $8.43M vs pump.fun 7d rev $8.09M → narrow 7d edge vs Pump launchpad alone. vs Pons 7d rev $2.96M and vs Pump+Pons combined → does not beat. 30d Pump $33.3M >> StonkFun $21.0M.
Sources: Llama API stonkfun · https://bsc.news/news/stonkfun-beats-pumpfun-7-day-launchpad-revenue (context only)
#3 Lighter (zkLighter / ETH + Robinhood Chain) — Radar 77
| Trusted | 82 |
| Revenue | 72 |
| Radar | 77 |
| Stage | Live perps DEX + bridge TVL; RH expansion |
| Thesis | Verifiable perps + fee→buyback path; RH Chain perps add distribution. |
| Why now | Fees and TVL up vs Wed; RH perps now a visible Llama line. |
| Biggest risk | Zero-fee retail model depends on premium/staking economics; volume share vs Hyperliquid; RH cliff may cut RH-leg activity. |
Fact metrics (Llama):
- Lighter fees 24h $277k / rev $198k · 7d fees $1.48M / rev $1.17M · 30d fees $5.45M / rev $4.65M
- TVL ~$746M (Eth ~$645M + Robinhood Chain ~$101M + Arb ~$2k)
- Lighter Robinhood Perps fees 24h $87k / rev $79k · 30d fees $1.61M / rev $1.43M
vs Wed: fees 24h was $190k / 30d $5.37M → 24h rising, 30d roughly flat-up.
Sources: Llama API lighter, lighter-robinhood-perps, tvl/lighter
#4 Pons (Robinhood Chain launchpad) — Radar 74 (cliff override −1 from raw 75)
| Trusted | 68 (subsidy-distorted usage; digest discounted) |
| Revenue | 82 |
| Raw Radar | 75 → override 74 (Sep 29 cliff + holders-rev crash) |
| Stage | Dominant RH meme launchpad |
| Thesis | High gross fees; protocol retains ~17% of fees; buybacks. |
| Why now | Still huge 30d print, but pre-cliff fade signals and holders revenue collapsed day-over-day. |
| Biggest risk | Gas subsidy ends Sep 29 (~5d). Launchpad volume already cooled mid-Sep (CryptoBriefing). Memecoin mix vs RH’s stock-token pitch. |
Fact metrics (Llama pons):
- Fees 24h $2.44M · 7d $19.5M · 30d $147.0M
- Revenue 24h $355k · 7d $2.96M · 30d $25.51M
- Holders rev 24h $122k (−84% 1d) · 7d $2.01M · 30d $15.82M
- mcap ~$418M · $PONS ~$0.61
vs Wed: rev 24h $377k → $355k; 30d $25.3M → $25.5M (stable trailing, soft daily).
Sources: Llama API pons · Motley Fool 2026-09-11 · EdgeX/CryptoBriefing 2026-09-17
#5 Meteora / DBC / StockLaunch (Solana) — Radar 73
| Trusted | 76 |
| Revenue | 70 |
| Radar | 73 |
| Stage | Infra + DBC integrator rails; StockLaunch product live |
| Thesis | Parent fee stack (DLMM etc.) + DBC as Solana stock-paired launch infra vs StonkFun. |
| Why now | Parent fees still large; StockLaunch/Backpack pairing is the competitive narrative; DBC day fees cooled vs Wed. |
| Biggest risk | DBC is integrator infra (Believe/Bags overlap — don’t double-count); protocol take is minority of DBC fees (~18%). |
Fact metrics (Llama):
- Meteora (parent) fees 24h $1.26M / rev $151k · 30d fees $28.2M / rev $3.30M · TVL ~$314M
- Meteora Dynamic Bonding Curve fees 24h $67.7k / rev $12.4k · 7d fees $407k / rev $75k · 30d fees $1.10M / rev $203k
vs Wed: DBC fees 24h was $84k → $68k (soft); parent 30d fees was $27.7M → $28.2M.
StockLaunch: Backpack-issued stock quote pairs on DBC (Fact product existence via Solana Compass / Meteora docs; fee schedule integrator-configurable — Estimate on share).
Sources: Llama meteora, meteora-dynamic-bonding-curve · memefees.com/launchpads/meteora-dbc · solanacompass StockLaunch piece
#6 Arc (Circle L1) — Radar 67
| Trusted | 80 (Circle launch + Llama chain TVL + Sep 24 week-1 print) |
| Revenue | 54 (app fees exist; no Llama chain-fee adapter; ARC token not public float) |
| Radar | 67 |
| Stage | Mainnet week 1 (launched Sep 16, 2026 per Circle / CoinGabbar) |
| Thesis | USDC-gas economic OS; institutional validators; Morpho/Aave/Uniswap early deposits. |
| Why now | Sep 24 official week-1 update: USDC circ / transfers; Llama TVL up vs Wed. |
| Biggest risk | Week-1 numbers often incentivized; meme launchpads on Arc still tiny vs Uniswap fees (CoinGabbar Sep 21); token accrual path unclear (ARC minted, public launch not committed). |
Fact metrics:
- Llama chain TVL ~$446M (vs Wed ~$383M → rising)
- CoinGabbar Sep 24 (citing official + Llama): USDC circ $624M, USDC transferred since launch $6.8B, Morpho Blue ~$211M, Aave V4 ~$146M, DEX vol 7d ~$497M (Fact as reported; treat protocol splits as secondary)
- Llama
arcchain fees adapter: none (total24hnull) - Prior app-fee snapshot (~Sep 21, CoinGabbar): ~$339k/24h app fees, Uniswap ~$251k (Estimate/dated)
Sources: https://defillama.com/chain/arc · Circle pressroom Arc mainnet · coingabbar.com Arc week-one (Sep 24)
#7 Derive — Radar 57
| Trusted | 70 |
| Revenue | 44 |
| Radar | 57 |
| Stage | Live options/perps; V3 DIP proposed |
| Thesis | Onchain options fee path; V3 zkVM/Ethereum settlement proposal is catalyst if passed. |
| Why now | Small but real daily revenue; forum DIP for V3. |
| Biggest risk | Fee scale tiny vs launchpads/perps leaders; V3 is proposal not ship (Speculative timeline). |
Fact metrics (Llama derive):
- Fees 24h $26.5k / rev $20.3k · 7d fees $225k / rev $175k · 30d fees $616k / rev $496k
- TVL ~$189M
vs Wed: rev 24h was $18k → $20k (slight up).
Sources: Llama derive · forums.derive.xyz DIP V3
2) SUMMARY TABLE
| Project | Chain | Stage | Trusted | Revenue | Radar | Thesis | Why now | Biggest risk | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pump.fun | Solana | Mature launchpad | 88 | 92 | 90 | Bonding-curve + buybacks | Still #1 launchpad rev | Reg / share wars | Llama pump.fun |
| StonkFun | Solana | Early launchpad | 72 | 85 | 79 | RW-paired LaunchLab fees | 7d still competitive | “Beat Pump+Pons” false; 24h cool | Llama stonkfun |
| Lighter | ETH / RH / Arb | Live perps | 82 | 72 | 77 | Perps + buybacks + RH leg | Fees/TVL up vs Wed | Zero-fee model; RH cliff | Llama lighter |
| Pons | Robinhood Chain | Launchpad leader | 68 | 82 | 74 | RH meme fee flywheel | Huge 30d; soft daily | Sep 29 gas cliff (~5d) | Llama pons; Fool; Gate |
| Meteora/DBC | Solana | DEX + DBC infra | 76 | 70 | 73 | Fees + StockLaunch rails | Parent fees solid; DBC soft | Integrator overlap | Llama meteora / DBC |
| Arc | Arc (Circle) | Mainnet wk1 | 80 | 54 | 67 | USDC-gas L1 DeFi | Sep 24 $624M USDC print; TVL↑ | Week-1 fade; weak token path | Llama chain; Circle; CoinGabbar |
| Derive | Derive/ETH | Options/perps | 70 | 44 | 57 | Options fees; V3 DIP | Steady small rev | Scale; V3 unshipped | Llama derive; forum |
3) WATCHLIST CHANGES vs WED Sep 23 ~09:45 ET
NEW
| Item | Note | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Puffer UniFi × Google Cloud Preconf | Chainwire Sep 23: Google Cloud joins Puffer Preconf Gateway Registry; UniFi first rollup on GCP gateway; sub-second preconfs / ~50ms claims in press. | Fact (announcement); fee accrual still weak (Puffer Stake Llama fees 24h ~$0) |
| Arc week-1 USDC print | Official/secondary Sep 24: $624M USDC circ, $6.8B transferred. | Fact (as reported) |
| Tesoro ($TORO) on RH Chain | Business Insider: holders paid in tokenized gold/stocks; launch fee 0.0005 ETH, 1% trade / 3% TORO tax. | Fact product; early |
| Long.xyz / LONG rails | Stock-paired RH launchpad; NVDA 3x packaging with Lighter exposure (Gate/Lookonchain). | Fact product; Speculative durable fees |
| Lighter Robinhood Perps (explicit Llama line) | Fees 24h $87k / rev $79k. | Fact |
RISING
| Item | vs Wed | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Lighter | Fees 24h $190k → $277k; TVL now ~$746M | Llama |
| Arc TVL | ~$383M → ~$446M | Llama chains |
| Pump.fun relative to StonkFun (24h) | Pump rev 24h $1.15M > StonkFun $958k | Llama |
| Meteora parent 30d fees | $27.7M → $28.2M | Llama |
FADING
| Item | vs Wed | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| StonkFun 24h | $1.27M → $958k (−~25%) | Llama |
| Pons holders rev | — → −84% 1d to $122k | Llama |
| Meteora DBC 24h fees | $84k → $68k | Llama |
| Exponent | TVL ~$77M flat ($76.7M); fees 24h collapsed to $564 (7d still $281k — spiky) | Llama → downgrade from hit to watch |
| Phoenix | Fees 24h $10.8k / rev ~$3; TVL ~$1.06M | Llama — fade confirmed |
| Hashi (Sui BTC) | Still no Llama fee path; mainnet timing unclear | Docs/KuCoin — watch only, not a hit |
| RH launchpad complex | Pre-cliff volume cool since mid-Sep | CryptoBriefing Sep 17 |
UNCHANGED / MONITOR
- RH stock tokens — docs live; ~$146M balance cited; real test is post–Sep 29.
- Variational — Bankless/points/airdrop narrative; Speculative, not scored as fee hit.
- Reya Perps — Llama fees 24h ~$1.0k / rev ~$268 — rumor > receipts.
- Kalshi / Canada deposits / Seeker — digest leftovers; no fresh fee-path confirmation in this pull.
4) MISSES TO AVOID
| Miss | Why |
|---|---|
| Pure meme tickers (single-name pumps) | Platforms OK; tickers = misses per mandate |
| Digest claim “StonkFun beat Pump+Pons” | Failed on combined 7d/30d Llama revenue |
| Reya as near-term fee hit | ~$1k/24h fees |
| Hashi as fee accrual today | No Llama fees; timing unclear |
| Variational / Seeker / Kalshi as radar hits | Narrative or non-crypto-fee; no fresh ProtocolRevenue |
| Arc meme launchpads (SolonPad, ARK Launch, etc.) | Combined << Uniswap on Arc (Sep 21 snapshot) |
| Double-counting DBC + Believe/Bags | Same underlying fee adapter risk |
| Treating Pump parent $5.5M fees as launchpad-only | Use pump.fun slug for apples-to-apples |
5) WHAT COULD I BE WRONG ABOUT?
- Sep 29 cliff is a non-event — If RH users already pay priority/other costs or wallets abstract gas, Pons/Lighter-RH may hold better than the subsidy narrative implies.
- StonkFun methodology under/over-counts — Press and Llama have disagreed on cumulative scale before; a adapter revision could re-rank #2 vs #1 overnight.
- Arc week-1 TVL is rented — Bridged Morpho/Aave deposits may leave after points/incentives; $446M may not be “organic.”
- Lighter zero-fee retail — If premium conversion or buyback math breaks, fee prints can shrink even with high notional volume.
- Pump share recovery — Custom Pairs / product surface might re-widen the gap vs StonkFun faster than stock-pair narrative expects.
- Puffer×Google — Infra partnership ≠ protocol revenue; could stay a zero-fee watch for months.
- Stock-token demand is real — If post-cliff RH activity skews to tokenized equities (not memes), Pons fades but RH Chain / Long / stock rails rise — opposite of meme-launchpad thesis.
- Exponent fee spike days — 7d $281k vs 24h $564 suggests lumpy accounting; could re-rate on next harvest day.
METRIC APPENDIX — Wed baseline → Thu refresh (Fact, Llama unless noted)
| Protocol | Wed ~09:45 ET (given) | Thu ~09:25 ET (re-pull) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| StonkFun rev 24h | $1.27M | $958k | ↓ |
| StonkFun rev 7d | $8.13M | $8.43M | ↑ |
| Pump.fun rev 24h | $1.25M | $1.15M | ↓ |
| Pons rev 24h | $377k | $355k | ↓ |
| Pons rev 30d | $25.3M | $25.51M | ≈ |
| Lighter fees 24h | $190k | $277k | ↑ |
| Lighter fees 30d | $5.37M | $5.45M | ≈↑ |
| Lighter TVL | (not in Wed list; search had ~$529–609M) | ~$746M | ↑ |
| Arc TVL | ~$383M | ~$446M | ↑ |
| Meteora fees 30d | $27.7M | $28.2M | ↑ |
| DBC fees 24h | $84k | $68k | ↓ |
| Exponent TVL | ~$77M | ~$76.7M | ≈ |
| Derive rev 24h | $18k | $20.3k | ↑ |
| RH gas cliff | Sep 29 (~6d Wed) | Sep 29 (~5d) | — |
DISCLAIMER
Research and risk mapping only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any token, equity, or product. Metrics can revise; Llama adapters and press figures can diverge. DIGEST STALE — do not trade on Sep 22 social claims without independent confirmation.
Pack saved: /workspace/crypto-radar/2026-09-24/morning-pack.md
Compiled ~09:30 ET Thu Sep 24, 2026 · no paid X API